FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 29-Sep-2011

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Sep-2011

NIFTY ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL

Today Nifty managed to keep up the good pull back of yesterday and gained 135 points, the support line of  V shaped recovery indicated yesterday was not even tested during the day

BUZZING NIFTY: V SHAPED RECOVERY

Yesterday nifty got resisted at 68% of the fall from 4930-4756, today after a good gap opening the bulls  took control of nifty and once 4930 was cleared there was no stopping the bulls , but nifty got resisted at 127% of the fall and manged to close marginally below it.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBO EXTENSION

The global markets indicate another good start for nifty tomorrow, support for tomorrow are 4982 and 4955 resistance at 5036 and 5101 . a close above 38 DEMA at 5086 will turn the short term trend in favor of bulls,

Being the expiry day for the Sept series and  the pain is shifting to the bears camp expect short covering, to help nifty move up.Range for expiry as per VIX is 4853 - 5089

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 27-Sep-2011

NIFTY ANALYSIS AFTER CLOSING BELL

BUZZING NIFTY:SUPPORT OF 200WSMA

Nifty found support at 200 week SMA at 4812 and bounced sharply,desperate attempt by the bulls to keep nifty above this level,


The Second chart shows that nifty got resisted at the 68% retracement from the fall 4930-4756

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT

The third chart of nifty in 5min shows V shaped recovery, holding above the trend line is the only hope for the bulls

BUZZING NIFTY: V SHAPED RECOVERY IN 5 MIN CHART

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 26-Sep-2011

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 24TH SEPT 2011

Nifty started the week on a positive note and moved up-to 5168, but faced stiff resistance at  previous weeks high of 5169 and 5143 resp, on Thursday nifty faced the wrath of the bears and fell more then 4%, the biggest rally since 2008 recovery, Thanks to negative global clues, appreciation in USD against INR, high inflation, PC's name in 2G scam, FII's continued sell offs. All teaming up together to bring nifty near 52 weeks low

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Elliot Wave Count:

The complicated wave 4, as it is well known to give a false breakout before resuming the actual trend, possibly gave a false breakout in the form of Triangle posted last week, early indications of 5th impulsive down is a break of 5880, However if the lows of Friday are not breached in the early half of the week, we could see some corrective up-moves for the week in the form of sub waves of larger 5th wave.

 Ichimoku: Gave a buy signal on Last Wednesday at 5038 odd level, since the price action was well below the cloud this is considered as a week buy and still in buy mode despite the fall to sub 4900 levels the immediate resistance is likely to be at the cloud, which is currently at 5125 level.

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU BUY

Bollinger Band: A move below the mid of BB at 4979 level  added to the strength of the bears who were able to drag nifty near the lower end of BB currently at 4796 odd level

BUZZING NIFTY: DAY BOLLINGER BAND

In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band, but failed to test the mid BB and the big red candle on the chart is not very encouraging either, immidiate support is seen at 4742 level and   only a  close above mid of BB which is roughly at 5307 would change the midterm trend for nifty.

BUZZING NIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

 

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level moved up , but the bears are active and pulling it back to the bottom of the channel currently near 4612 level.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL IN DAY CHART

  

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, previous Friday nifty failed to move past this all important MA and started another round of sell off.

This time was no exception and nifty found resistance at the same MA , and the bears did not miss the trick this time around and pulled nifty far away from this important indicator.

BUZZING NIFTY: 38DEMA FAVORING BEARS

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, indicated last week, in the last week nifty moved below 23% retracement clearly indicating weakness.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBO LEVELS

INVERTED BUMP AND RUN POSSIBLE FORMATION

BUZZING NIFTY : INVERTED BUMP AND RUN

The current setup in nifty suggest the formation of the inverted bump and run pattern , however this is very initial stage, but lets try to keep a watch on the possible formation and how the prices unfolds, a break above the current trend line would be the ray of hope for the bulls.

NIFTY LONG TERM CHART

Nifty is trading near the support as indicated in the chart, the trend line is drawn from the panic lows of 2008, a break below this trend line would be the real worry for long term investors, also the channel indicates the current down phase in the nifty, in both the cases a break above the resistance line would see nifty flying high to make newer and bigger top.

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY LONG TERM CHART

The week ahead: With a lot of negative news in the market, higher inflation, appreciation in USD the equity / commodity markets globally are under continued pressure, nifty is now trading below the earlier supports of 4911 and 4943 levels and will now turn into resistance, and only a move past these levels will see some short covering, as we are in the last week of the Sept contract expiry, and markets trading well below all moving averages, and Pivots, expecting more pain to the bulls

Remember the long/mid term trend of nifty is  down, but the short term is over sold and can stay like this for more time, however it can bring some sharp intraday rallies which can be used to create fresh short position for the week.

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

FII & DII Trading activity during Sep '11(PROVISIONAL FIGURES)

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 23-Sep-2011

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 22-Sep-2011

New 52-Week Lows/Highs as on 22nd sept 2011

NIFTY INTRADAY UPDATE- failed attempt at 38dema/ FALSE TRIANGLE BREAKOUT

BUZZING NIFTY: FAILED TO SUSTAIN ABOVE 38DEMA/ FALSE TRIANGLE BREAKOUT

Nifty not able to sustain above 38DEMA, triggering another sell off- Thanks to negative global clues
Typical false breakout of wave 4th, possibility of nifty hitting newer lows would get confirm on a break below 4880 level.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21-Sep-2011

NIFTY TRIANGLE BREAKOUT/ STAYING ABOVE 38DEMA

 

 

BUZZING NIFTY: TRIANGLE BREAKOUT/ STAYING ABOVE 38DEMA

Nifty despite closing in red today(-7 Points)and closed at 5133, managed to sustain above 38DEMA at 5127 levels,in the process tested the triangle and bounced, mainly due to the strength in the banking stocks, staying above 5127 may target the resistance Zone of 5160-5190 levels, a fall below 5087 will confirm the sale

BUZZING NIFTY: TRIANGLE UPDATE

BANK NIFTY: Banking Stocks capitalized on the triangle breakout, and showed strength through out the day, as long as Bank Nifty Trades above its 31DSMA, the rally in nifty could continue.

NIFTY INTRADAY UPDATE- support of 38dema/ TRIANGLE BREAKOUT

BUZZING NIFTY: TRIANGLE BREAKOUT/STAYING ABOVE 38DEMA

As suggested yesterday, Nifty took support at 38DEMA,  staying above it may continue moving up , resistance zone of 5170-95 once cleared might target 5220-30

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-Sep-2011

NIFTY TRIANGLE BREAKOUT

BUZZING NIFTY: DAY TRIANGLE BREAKOUT

Nifty broke out of the triangle in day chart, the positive breakout has resistance at previous highs of 5196 and 5220, above that the possible target of the break is roughly 400 points, immediate support at 5126 level.


BANK NIFTY

BUZZING NIFTY:   BANK NIFTY TRIANGLE

Bank nifty is trading near the resistance of the triangle, trading above today's close would confirm the breakout, immediate resistance at 9958 and 10054, above that it may target 10387+

NIFTY INTRADAY UPDATE

BUZZINGNIFTY: 38DEMA

Nifty near important resistance level of 5126(38DEMA), staying above this will add strength to the bulls,

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19-Sep-2011

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 17TH SEPT 2011

Nifty started the week on a negative  note but got good support at 4900 level and moved up-to 5143.6, but failed to close above 38% retracement  of 5740-4720 and previous week high of 5169, Friday as usual saw some profit booking at higher level and nifty managed to close at 5084 , roughly 2% gain over previous week. The RBI rate hike was in line with the expectations and turned out to be a non event, however markets were volatile on Friday due to the unexpected rate hike in the prices of petrol on Thursday night and despite closing at lower levels for the day nifty managed to sustain above the previous resistance of 5040-57 range.

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Elliot Wave Count:

  

 

As indicated last week the possibility of wave 4 continuing seems to be preferred choice at the moment the chart above indicates that nifty has completed corrective b of 4 and is currently in wave c of 4th , and if a=c("a" was 4720 to 5169= 449 points, "b" was 5169to 4911=258 points, now "c" likely to be 4911+449=5360)  then nifty mighty be moving to wards the unfilled gap of 5323 level, to be followed by 5th down. Alternate wave count is not marked to avoid confusion.

 Ichimoku: Gave a buy signal on Wednesday at 5038 odd level, since the price action is below the cloud this is considered as a week buy and the immediate resistance is likely to be at the cloud, which is currently at 5296 level.

Bollinger Band: Nifty trading above mid of the bollinger band gives some hope to the  bulls and may target 5180 odd level, however a move below the mid of BB at 4979 level would surely add to the strength of the bears who would love to drag nifty to the lower end of BB currently at 4774 odd level

 In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band, still has a mammoth task of moving past mid bollinger ban currently at 5343 which coincides with the possible EW count and unfilled GAP  levels, only a  close above 5377 would change the midterm trend for nifty.

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level is now moving north and would be targeting 5550 odd levels.

   

  

BULLISH 5-0 PATTERN

Bearish Shark Pattern posted last week achieved the target of 4944 level and in the process also formed a possible 5-0 bullish pattern  with targets of 5182,5351 and 5619 

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, previous Friday nifty failed to move past this all important MA and started another round of sell off.

This Friday was no exception and nifty found resistance at the same MA only a comfortable move past this level would add strength to the BULLS

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, indicated immediate resistance at 5110 level and the next hurdle would be to cross the 50% level at 5230 and above that is the unfilled gap Zone.

The week ahead: FII's and DII's continous buying from the lows of 4720 and  Quarterly/Half year end near the corner, MF/ INSURANCE companies also buying to keep the NAVS up will all help the bulls and also the retailers (stuck at higher levels, make an exit from the market).

 Nifty has made a range on Friday between 5075-5130, the break of the range would give early signs of the trend for the week, the weekly range of the week is 4977-5230, with 5046 being the pivot for the week

Remember the long/mid term trend of nifty is still down, only the short term trend has moved up.

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 16-Sep-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	114395	2897.61	110599	2809.24	635371	16032.57
INDEX OPTIONS	620363	15638.26	610851	15326.74	2349734	59722.44
STOCK FUTURES	100609	2531.62	89943	2265.66	1184664	29578.43
STOCK OPTIONS	24042	567.45	23327	553.07	70827	1751.03
		21634.93		20954.71		107084.46
FII BUY IN F&O	680.22		FII BUY IN INDEX FUTURES			88.37
FII NET BUY	395.16 CR		DII NET BUY			39.33CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

Notes:

Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty

Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 9TH SEPT 2011

Nifty started the week on a positive note and moved up-to 5169, but failed to close above 38% retracement  of 5740-4720 and ended  flat 5059 as compared to previous weekly close at 5040. indicating the up move corrective in nature, and should resume the down trend

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Elliot Wave Count:
  

 The corrective wave 4th  up could have ended at 5169 and the 5th impulsive down might have started, a confirmation of the same would be nifty moving below 4880 level

 Ichimoku: Already in sell for a good time now gave another bearish signal of friday , as nifty falied to close above the Tanken Sen line, indicating continued weakness despite a good 450 odd points rally from the bottom.

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU

Bollinger Band: Nifty trading above mid of the bollinger band gives some hope to the ailing bulls and may target 5220 odd level, however a move below the mid of BB at 4999 would surely add to the strength of the bears who would love to drag nifty to the lower end of BB currently at 4774 odd level

BUZZINGNIFTY: BOLLINGER BAND

 In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band, still has a mammoth task of moving past 5377 which looks like a distinct possibility also there is a unfilled gap between 5220-5350, only a  close above 5377 would change the midterm trend for nifty.

BUZZINGNIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades

   

BUZZINGNIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

 BEARISH: SHARK PATTERN

Nifty got resisted at 5169, just short of its target of 5189, the detailed analysis of this pattern, and possible targets can be found in the chart below

BUZZINGNIFTY: BEARISH SHARK PATTERN

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, on Friday also nifty failed to move past this all important MA and started another round of sell off.

NIFTY 38DEMA

The week ahead: RBI meet on rate hikes expected next weekend (on 17th Sept)  so the banking stocks would be under pressure and may give huge intraday moves, Expected Range for the week 5000 to 5227, however a move past these levels would give excellent trades in the direction of the move. Remember the larger trend is down and daily too has turned down

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY BEARISH RISING WEDGE IN 30 MINS CHART

Nifty forming a bearish rising wedge in half hour chart, break down point is roughly around 5090 level and would be a good shorting opportunity, if not broken then it may test the upper part of the wedge.