NIFTY HOURLY CHANNEL

Nifty falling in a channel.
Trading near the top of the channel resistance line.
Breakout above the line would give roughly 130 points move.
Fail to cross will see nifty testing the support line of the channel

STOCKS HITTING NEW 52 WEEK LOW as on 19th DEC 2011

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK ENDED 16th DEC 2011

Nifty started the week with a gap up opening ut was unable to sustain the above it for long and the sharp rally on Friday shattered the hopes of the bulls, and nifty closed at its 52week low, the broader market suggest that the bottom is still to be achieved.

Nifty closed the week with 215 points loss over the previous week or 4.4% down

 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 
Still in sell mode and the price is below the conversion line , base line and the cloud showing the weakness in the market.

Bollinger Band:Nifty closed at 52weeks low and is currently at the bottom of the band in day/week and monthly chart, but the band has just started to expand in day chart which indicates that more low are possible on the index, the first task for the bulls to achieve is pulling nifty near mid of the band in day chart.

 

NIFTY support and resistance

Currently there are two channels in Nifty.

 

   The first chart shows the larger channel from the top at 6339 level, through out the year, price action has been within this channel, and currently the index is near the bottom of the channel, and is likely to give another good trade setup as the bulls would like to defend the channel, and the bears would be hoping to break-down from the channel,good positional trades can be taken with small stop-loss in either direction at the bottom of the channel.

  38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, is trading in symmetrical patterns through out the year and this time also the price gets rejected in the first attempt to conquer 38DEMA and has give yet another good short trade.

The second channel is formed within the bigger channel and in line chart it indicates the bottom of the channel, it also give an idea about the EW typical 4th wave false break-out, and the swiftness in the fall suggest that nifty could be in the 5th wave of the fall.

NIFTY HEAD AND SHOULDER FORMATION:

a good head and shoulder is formed in the Nifty, the first chart shows the good formation

 

the line chart suggest that the neak line is broken, however in recent past the pattern has not achieved the desired results due to high popularity and wide use, keep an eye on the price action as it unfolds as it is likely to trap the weaker bears and also the newer entrants

the second charts shows the possible target of the H&S pattern. the length of the Head was 638 points and thid could be the most obvious target for the pattern, the neck line was broken near 4688 level so the target would be near 4050 level, but it is advisable to use Fibonacci levels to part book shorts and to make reentry at the resistances as they are formed.

 NIFTY POSSIBLE ROUNDING TOP FORMATION:

A chart pattern used in technical analysis which is identified by price movements that, when graphed, form the shape of an upside down "U". A rounding top may form at the end of an extended upward trend and indicates a reversal in the long-term price movement. The pattern can develop over several weeks, months or even years, and is considered a rare occurrence by many traders.

The chart below illustrates a rounding top.

NIFTY BROADNING FORMATION
A pattern that occurs during high volatility, when a security shows great movement with little direction. The formation is identified by a series of higher pivot highs and lower pivot lows. A trendline drawn over the pivot highs and under the pivot lows frames out the widening pattern. It looks like a megaphone and, in fact, it is also known by that name. 
 

 

 

Broadening Formation
As the two trendlines diverge from the apex, the pattern resembles a reverse version of a symmetrical triangle. This pattern is considered quite rare, but is useful in helping technicians to identify swing trades, rather than a trend trades.

PREVIOUS WEEK:
 The trade setup last week  enabled us  with two shorting opportunities during the week the first on was at the beginning of the week to sell near the pivot at 4932 level( the top made was 4910& the open and high were almost same 4906&4910) the second opportunity was a break below 4724 level , which gave near 100 points returns( the low made was 4628)


THE WEEK AHEAD:

Expected High /Low for the week 4780/4498 with 4710 being the pivot point for the week, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week. buying near 4510-25 levels with SAR below 4480 level and taking short positions near 4760-80 with SAR above 4800 level should be the strategy for traders with no position, the SAR traders are short from 4900 level and have part booked should also rebuild positions near the Pivot and the expected top.

NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE IN HOUR CHART/ POSITIVE DIVERGENCE

Nifty bullish falling wedge formation in hourly charts, the support comes near 4650 odd levels, a break above 4774 would confirm short term reversal on the index, might target 5090-5100 odd level.

Price behavior in nifty suggest another bullish possibility in the form of positive divergence in both MACD and 9RSI, if nifty manages to hold on to the support line indicated in the above chart, these divergence would ensure a good run for the bulls at-least in short term.

Nifty is holding the current lows also favors the possiblity of Gartley pattern in day chart posted earlier
refer link.
http://buzzingnifty.blogspot.com/2011/12/nifty-trade-setup-for-week-12-17dec.html

NIFTY BEARISH RISING WEDGE IN 15 MINS CHART

From the lows of 4730, nifty is making a rising wedge pattern which is bearish in nature, a confirmation of the same would be a break below the support line, also it gives good trade opportunity near the top of the wedge.
 The target of the wedge would be the low of the formation or 4730on spot nifty.

NIFTY TRADE SETUP FOR THE WEEK 12-17DEC 2011

Nifty continues to trade in the range, after quick recovery from the low of 4639 the index is slowly moving towards the bottom.
A bearish Gartley is in the making and if nifty finds support between 4680-4720 levels the we would be moving north to complete the pattern.

TRADE SETUP FOR THE WEEK: Expected high /low for the week 4982/4724, with pivot at 4932, positions taken near these levels would yield good returns, SAR traders are short near the pivot since last Friday and already part booked at 50& 100 points respectively

NIFTY- ISLAND REVERSAL AND EVENING STAR FORMATION(BEARISH)

With today's gapdown opening nifty made a island reversal pattern , in this case this is bearish in nature and stop-loss for shorts taken at this level would be a close above 5036 level.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 07-Dec-2011

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK ENDED 3rd DEC 2011

Nifty started the week with a gap up opening and continued to trade near our level of 4791 for some time before moving up, Thursday and Friday nifty gained momentum and gave good gains .

The index gained good 340 points or 7.2% and settled at 5050 most of the front-line stocks also showed good recovery from the bottom, with major central banks globally uniting to fight the current crises , banking stocks hold promising outlook at-least for the short-mid term.

 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 
Still in sell mode but gave positive signals throughout the week, firstly by clearing the base and conversion line and finally conquering the cloud, a buy signal from here would only add more strength to the bulls because this would be above the cloud and would be considered strong in terms of the parameter of the indicator.

Bollinger Band:Friday close ensured that Nifty closed above the mid of the band in both the daily and weekly chart indicating momentum in favor of the bulls.

 

NIFTY support and resistance

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4640 nifty is moving in a narrowing formation, the current formations looks like a triangle , nifty is likely to continue withing this formation for some more time, however a breakout/down from the range will decide the further direction on the index.Nifty broke the channel but managed to close the previous week above the trend line and this week saw a good bounce from the lows.

   

 

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, nifty managed to close the week above this EMA at 4996 level, which should give support to nifty now, else bears would again be in control.

FIBONACCI PROJECTION

Fibonacci projection in nifty shows that nifty has reached the resistance by completing the retracement of the previous move, nifty managed to close above the resistance at 5120 level, how ever a move below this level would open the gates for another down move, aggressive shorts to be taken below this level only.

       

 FIBONACCI CHANNEL:

Nifty Fibo channel from the fall from 6339 to the lows of 4639  shows the price action has been in a channel and this bounce from the lows has been fast and could result in the change of the trend ,it may be early indications but so far there has been no exhaustion sign or development of any divergence to bring about a pause to this up-moveon Friday nifty managed to clear the 61.8% at 5004 level and should now target 78.6%at 5153 and 88.7%at 5239, the support is at 50%at 4900 level and below that 38.2% at 4793 level

NIFTY STOCHASTIC AND MACD:

As indicated last week, MACD has started to show reversal signs indication a short trem bottom is in place at 4640 level, the indicator gave another indication of the upmove to continue and there is no sign of reversal yet.

Stochastic has given good trade setups by giving early indications of overbought and oversold conditions shows that there is steam left for more upside possibility.

As indicated in the previous post the Stochastic has also reached the oversold territory, and a technical bounce either in form of flat correction or until the stochastic reading starts indication of overbought zone.

 NIFTY POSSIBLE ROUNDING TOP FORMATION:

A chart pattern used in technical analysis which is identified by price movements that, when graphed, form the shape of an upside down "U". A rounding top may form at the end of an extended upward trend and indicates a reversal in the long-term price movement. The pattern can develop over several weeks, months or even years, and is considered a rare occurrence by many traders.

The chart below illustrates a rounding top.

NIFTY BROADNING FORMATION
A pattern that occurs during high volatility, when a security shows great movement with little direction. The formation is identified by a series of higher pivot highs and lower pivot lows. A trendline drawn over the pivot highs and under the pivot lows frames out the widening pattern. It looks like a megaphone and, in fact, it is also known by that name. 
 

 

 

Broadening Formation

As the two trendlines diverge from the apex, the pattern resembles a reverse version of a symmetrical triangle. This pattern is considered quite rare, but is useful in helping technicians to identify swing trades, rather than a trend trades.

PREVIOUS WEEK:
 The trade setup last week  enabled us  to short at 4790 level and as we were stopped out early in the week and reversed to long  above 4820, gave more then 230 points for the week


THE WEEK AHEAD:

Expected High /Low for the week 5210.25-4902.70with 4955 being the pivot point for the week, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week. buying near 4915-25 levels with SAR below 4900 level and taking short positions near 5190-5115 with SAR above 5220 level should be the strategy for traders with no position, those who part booked at 4870& 4920 level should rebuild longs near 4965 and 4910 levels and hedge/part book near 5190 level

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 01-Dec-2011

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 30-Nov-2011

FII Trading Activity - November 2011 (Provisional Figures)