Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the process of looking at a business at the basic or fundamental financial level. This type of analysis examines key ratios of a business to determine its financial health and gives you an idea of the value its stock.

Many investors use fundamental analysis alone or in combination with other tools to evaluate stocks for investment purposes. The goal is to determine the current worth and, more importantly, how the market values the stock.

This article focuses on the key tools of fundamental analysis and what they tell you. Even if you don’t plan to do in-depth fundamental analysis yourself, it will help you follow stocks more closely if you understand the key ratios and terms.

Earnings

It’s all about earnings. When you come to the bottom line, that’s what investors want to know. How much money is the company making and how much is it going to make in the future.

Earnings are profits. It may be complicated to calculate, but that’s what buying a company is about. Increasing earnings generally leads to a higher stock price and, in some cases, a regular dividend.

When earnings fall short, the market may hammer the stock. Every quarter, companies report earnings. Analysts follow major companies closely and if they fall short of projected earnings, sound the alarm.

While earnings are important, by themselves they don’t tell you anything about how the market values the stock. To begin building a picture of how the stock is valued you need to use some fundamental analysis tools.

Fundamental Analysis Tools

These are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis. They focus on earnings, growth, and value in the market . No single number from this list is a magic bullet that will give you a buy or sell recommendation by itself, however as you begin developing a picture of what you want in a stock, these numbers will become benchmarks to measure the worth of potential investments.

Understanding Earnings Per Share

One of the challenges of evaluating stocks is establishing an “apples to apples” comparison. What I mean by this is setting up a comparison that is meaningful so that the results help you make an investment decision.

Comparing the price of two stocks is meaningless as I point out in my article “Why Per-Share Price is Not Important.”

Similarly, comparing the earnings of one company to another really doesn’t make any sense, if you think about it. Using the raw numbers ignores the fact that the two companies undoubtedly have a different number of outstanding shares.

For example, companies A and B both earn Rs100, but company A has 10 shares outstanding, while company B has 50 shares outstanding. Which company’s stock do you want to own?

It makes more sense to look at earnings per share (EPS) for use as a comparison tool. You calculate earnings per share by taking the net earnings and divide by the outstanding shares.

EPS = Net Earnings / Outstanding Shares              
Using our example above, Company A had earnings of Rs100 and 10 shares outstanding, which equals an EPS of 10 (Rs100 / 10 = 10). Company B had earnings of Rs100 and 50 shares outstanding, which equals an EPS of 2 (Rs100 / 50 = 2).

So, you should go buy Company A with an EPS of 10, right? Maybe, but not just on the basis of its EPS. The EPS is helpful in comparing one company to another, assuming they are in the same industry, but it doesn’t tell you whether it’s a good stock to buy or what the market thinks of it. For that information, we need to look at some ratios.

Before we move on, you should note that there are three types of EPS numbers:

• Trailing EPS – last year’s numbers and the only actual EPS
• Current EPS – this year’s numbers, which are still projections
• Forward EPS – future numbers, which are obviously projections

Understanding Price to Earnings Ratio

If there is one number that people look at than more any other it is the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). The P/E is one of those numbers that investors throw around with great authority as if it told the whole story. Of course, it doesn’t tell the whole story (if it did, we wouldn’t need all the other numbers.)

The P/E looks at the relationship between the stock price and the company’s earnings. The P/E is the most popular metric of stock analysis, although it is far from the only one you should consider.

You calculate the P/E by taking the share price and dividing it by the company’s EPS.

P/E = Stock Price / EPS

For example, a company with a share price of Rs40 and an EPS of 8 would have a P/E of 5 (Rs40 / 8 = 5).

What does P/E tell you? The P/E gives you an idea of what the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. The higher the P/E the more the market is willing to pay for the company’s earnings. Some investors read a high P/E as an overpriced stock and that may be the case, however it can also indicate the market has high hopes for this stock’s future and has bid up the price.

Conversely, a low P/E may indicate a “vote of no confidence” by the market or it could mean this is a sleeper that the market has overlooked. Known as value stocks, many investors made their fortunes spotting these “diamonds in the rough” before the rest of the market discovered their true worth.

What is the “right” P/E? There is no correct answer to this question, because part of the answer depends on your willingness to pay for earnings. The more you are willing to pay, which means you believe the company has good long term prospects over and above its current position, the higher the “right” P/E is for that particular stock in your decision-making process. Another investor may not see the same value and think your “right” P/E is all wrong.

Understanding the PEG

The P/E is the most popular way to compare the relative value of stocks based on earnings because you calculate it by taking the current price of the stock and divide it by the Earnings Per Share (EPS). This tells you whether a stock’s price is high or low relative to its earnings.

Some investors may consider a company with a high P/E overpriced and they may be correct. A high P/E may be a signal that traders have pushed a stock’s price beyond the point where any reasonable near term growth is probable.

However, a high P/E may also be a strong vote of confidence that the company still has strong growth prospects in the future, which should mean an even higher stock price.

Because the market is usually more concerned about the future than the present, it is always looking for some way to project out. Another ratio you can use will help you look at future earnings growth is called the PEG ratio. The PEG factors in projected earnings growth rates to the P/E for another number to remember.

You calculate the PEG by taking the P/E and dividing it by the projected growth in earnings.

PEG = P/E / (projected growth in earnings)

For example, a stock with a P/E of 30 and projected earning growth next year of 15% would have a PEG of 2 (30 / 15 = 2).

What does the “2” mean? Like all ratios, it simply shows you a relationship. In this case, the lower the number the less you pay for each unit of future earnings growth. So even a stock with a high P/E, but high projected earning growth may be a good value.

Looking at the opposite situation; a low P/E stock with low or no projected earnings growth, you see that what looks like a value may not work out that way. For example, a stock with a P/E of 8 and flat earnings growth equals a PEG of 8. This could prove to be an expensive investment.

A few important things to remember about PEG:

• It is about year-to-year earnings growth
• It relies on projections, which may not always be accurate

Understanding Price to Sales Ratio

One ratio you can use is Price to Sales or P/S ratio. This metric looks at the current stock price relative to the total sales per share. You calculate the P/S by dividing the market cap of the stock by the total revenues of the company.

You can also calculate the P/S by dividing the current stock price by the sales per share.

P/S = Market Cap / Revenues         
or
P/S = Stock Price / Sales Price Per Share

Much like P/E, the P/S number reflects the value placed on sales by the market. The lower the P/S, the better the value, at least that’s the conventional wisdom. However, this is definitely not a number you want to use in isolation. When dealing with a young company, there are many questions to answer and the P/S supplies just one answer.

Understanding Price to Book Ratio

Investors looking for hot stocks aren’t the only ones trolling the markets. A quiet group of folks called value investors go about their business looking for companies that the market has passed by.

Some of these investors become quite wealthy finding sleepers, holding on to them for the long term as the companies go about their business without much attention from the market, until one day they pop up on the screen, and some analyst “discovers” them and bids up the stock. Meanwhile, the value investor pockets a hefty profit.

Value investors look for some other indicators besides earnings growth and so on. One of the metrics they look for is the Price to Book ratio or P/B. This measurement looks at the value the market places on the book value of the company.

You calculate the P/B by taking the current price per share and dividing by the book value per share.

P/B = Share Price / Book Value Per Share

Like the P/E, the lower the P/B, the better the value. Value investors would use a low P/B is stock screens, for instance, to identify potential candidates.

Understanding Dividend Payout Ratio

There are some metrics used in fundamental analysis that fall into what I call the “ho-hum” category.

The Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR) is one of those numbers. It almost seems like a measurement invented because it looked like it was important, but nobody can really agree on why.

The DPR (it usually doesn’t even warrant a capitalized abbreviation) measures what a company’s pays out to investors in the form of dividends.

You calculate the DPR by dividing the annual dividends per share by the Earnings Per Share.

DPR = Dividends Per Share / EPS

For example, if a company paid out Rs1 per share in annual dividends and had Rs3 in EPS, the DPR would be 33%. (Rs1 / Rs3 = 33%)

The real question is whether 33% is good or bad and that is subject to interpretation. Growing companies will typically retain more profits to fund growth and pay lower or no dividends.

Companies that pay higher dividends may be in mature industries where there is little room for growth and paying higher dividends is the best use of profits (utilities used to fall into this group, although in recent years many of them have been diversifying).

Either way, you must view the whole DPR issue in the context of the company and its industry. By itself, it tells you very little.

Understanding Book Value

How much is a company worth and is that value reflected in the stock price?

There are several ways to define a company’s worth or value. One of the ways you define value is market cap or how much money would you need to buy every single share of stock at the current price.

Another way to determine a company’s value is to go to the balance statement and look at the Book Value. The Book Value is simply the company’s assets minus its liabilities.

Book Value = Assets - Liabilities

In other words, if you wanted to close the doors, how much would be left after you settled all the outstanding obligations and sold off all the assets.

A company that is a viable growing business will always be worth more than its book value for its ability to generate earnings and growth.

Book value appeals more to value investors who look at the relationship to the stock's price by using the Price to Book ratio.

To compare companies, you should convert to book value per share, which is simply the book value divided by outstanding shares.

Understanding Return on Equity

If you give some management teams a couple of boards, some glue, and a ball of string, they can build a profitable growing business, while other teams can’t make a profit with several billion dollars worth of assets.

Return on Equity (ROE) is one measure of how efficiently a company uses its assets to produce earnings. You calculate ROE by dividing Net Income by Book Value. A healthy company may produce an ROE in the 13% to 15% range. Like all metrics, compare companies in the same industry to get a better picture.

While ROE is a useful measure, it does have some flaws that can give you a false picture, so never rely on it alone. For example, if a company carries a large debt and raises funds through borrowing rather than issuing stock it will reduce its book value. A lower book value means you’re dividing by a smaller number so the ROE is artificially higher. There are other situations such as taking write-downs, stock buy backs, or any other accounting slight of hand that reduces book value, which will produce a higher ROE without improving profits.

It may also be more meaningful to look at the ROE over a period of the past five years, rather than one year to average out any abnormal numbers.

Given that you must look at the total picture, ROE is a useful tool in identifying companies with a competitive advantage. All other things roughly equal, the company that can consistently squeeze out more profits with their assets, will be a better investment in the long run.