FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 25-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	117544	3474.75	116452	3442.05	581186	17124.87
INDEX OPTIONS	152325	4469.14	162064	4731.33	1749781	51195.19
STOCK FUTURES	236849	6266.43	248000	6574.68	1317574	34894.50
STOCK OPTIONS	7609	216.75	8322	232.85	22370	621.57
		14427.07		14980.91		103836.13
FII SELL IN F&O		553.85 CR	FII BUY IN INDEX FUTURES			32.69 CR
FII NET SELL		377.59 CR		DII NET BUY		236.62 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	68188	2016.16	61357	1811.80	565004	16687.25
INDEX OPTIONS	243972	7144.09	223913	6558.45	1775544	52038.89
STOCK FUTURES	166227	4555.16	163644	4471.12	1297939	34418.03
STOCK OPTIONS	15107	443.61	15965	469.58	24281	678.82
		14159.02		13310.94		103822.99
FII BUY IN F&O	848.07 CR		FII BUY IN INDEX FUTURES			204.35 CR
FII NET BUY	307.79 CR		DII NET SELL			269.61 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	100460	2924.23	70881	2065.85	567595	16666.12
INDEX OPTIONS	276427	8018.47	247942	7165.17	1739977	50706.83
STOCK FUTURES	120141	3159.19	123470	3280.65	1273359	33657.70
STOCK OPTIONS	13064	360.71	12865	351.61	23967	667.60
		14462.60		12863.28		101698.25
FII BUY IN F&O		1599.32 CR	FII BUY IN INDEX OPTIONS			858.38 CR
FII NET BUY		193 CR	DII NET SELL			23.27 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	52595	1512.38	72035	2068.88	572830	16498.14
INDEX OPTIONS	287408	8242.48	277483	7979.19	1712456	48958.33
STOCK FUTURES	67333	1869.44	74062	2081.54	1253640	32496.41
STOCK OPTIONS	10213	279.08	10992	300.62	23240	629.66
FII SELL IN F&O		526.83 CR	FII SELL IN INDEX FUTURES			556.50 CR
FII NET SELL		5690.65 CR		DII NET BUY		208.33 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

NIFTY ANALYSIS AFTER THE CLOSING BELL

Nifty is at a make or break zone, making it the most dreaded part for the traders, a lot of action today was near the break point of the fall from 6339 to 5690, however the level was not tested today , but the chances of breaking the same could not be ruled out.

BUZZINGNIFTY: TRIANGLE FORMATION

A symetrical triangle in nifty in 30 min time frame, a break in either direction would give around 65 points move.

BUZZING NIFTY: MAKE OR BREAK POINT

In the second chart we can see, the important price zone which could decide the course of nifty in short to medium term, the action today was inside this zone, a close beyond this channel will help take a trade in the direction of the break.

BUZZING NIFTY: SELL IN MACD/ TEST OF 200 DMA

Although the bulls managed a close above 200DMA, but most of the price action today was below this all important moving average, as long as this is protected the bulls can hope of some recovery, MACD a very reliable indicator turned down and gave a sell signal , a close below 200 DMA which is currently around 5733 will favor the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: BEARISH FLAG

The hope for the Bears is the formation of a bearish Flag in the hourly time frame, price action below 5710 would only attract more selling, the target of this formation is roughly around 175 points.


Till the range is not broken out , trade light and book smaller profits, a sell around 5778/ 5805 and buy near 5710/5690 with small stop-loss ( not more then 10-15 points)would be a good trade till the direction of nifty is not clear.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	90689	2637.92	92779	2693.66	575220	16495.50
INDEX OPTIONS	461007	13314.12	425293	12388.37	1694531	48344.85
STOCK FUTURES	74271	2036.95	77812	2219.76	1240941	31993.19
STOCK OPTIONS	19046	540.10	19053	540.04	24631	661.04
		18529.09		17841.84		97494.59
FII BUY IN F&O		687.26 CR	FII SELL IN INDEX FUTURES			55.74 CR
FII NET SELL		981.56 CR	DII NET BUY			661.47 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for week ended 16th April. 2011

Nifty is stuck to 5842  level for quiet some time now,this week also saw not much change and closed marginally low at 5823, due to time constraint, could not post the update till market closed on monday, but the charts are as markets at close on 15th

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

  Ichimoku: Gave a weak buy signal on 23^th March with the nifty around 5420 level  and nifty trading below the KOMU but the rise during the week not only took nifty into the cloud but managed to move wall past the upper boundary of the cloud,For the first time since the fall from Jan the price action have moved above the cloud, indicating the power of the bulls at the moment, the first sign of weakness was seen on Friday when the price action was below Tenken Sen, Nifty trading below 5840 gives some hope to the bears, likely to get strength when nifty starts trading below 5682, which is the upper boundary of the cloud.

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU

 

BollingerBand: After trading near the top band of bollinger bears were finally able to bring a hault to the price movement , the next support would be around the mid line of the band currently @ 5704.

 

BUZZINGNIFTY: DAILY BOLLINGER BAND

 In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band,  cleared the first resistance by moving past the mid value of the bollinger and trading above it , on its way up it could take nifty to 6100+ odd levels, the current support is around 5684 level.

BUZZINGNIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

DEATH CROSS( 50DMA Crossing  below 200DMA)

The DEATH CROSS was Formed in Nifty on 4th March 2011, It is considered highly Bearish, The Last Time when we saw this formation Nifty slipped from 4800 levels to 2300 odd Levels, as the name itself indicates highest degree of Bearishness

However  nifty decided to move past 50&200 DMA,the bears will hope to do major damage as long as 200 remains below 50 sma.

Recently  there was a similar cross in S&P Index in US, but the Price movement proved otherwise,will this happen to our markets as well, currently the support of 200dma is at 5723, below which nifty gets weak.

BUZZINGNIFTY: DEATH CROSS

  

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT;As can be seen in the chart the resistance is at 5907, the line shows nifty got resisted at it several times,  for nifty to continue its journey north this needs to be taken out decisively.

 

BUZZINGNIFTY: TRIANGLE FORMATION/ SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LINES

For the week support is seen near 5690-80 level and resistance near 5906, risk reward ratio for the positions taken near these levels would be high near these levels, a break of this range will give clear direction to nifty .

 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	61558	1804.13	94820	2774.23	591164	17242.36
INDEX OPTIONS	308186	8924.25	282316	8236.46	1608161	46634.09
STOCK FUTURES	52402	1496.14	69880	2070.56	1236646	32463.18
STOCK OPTIONS	16076	474.37	15567	460.69	22944	630.05
FII SELL IN F&O		843.05 CR	FII SELL IN INDEX FUTURES			970.10 CR
FII NET SELL		253.43 CR	DII NET SELL			360.87 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	84020	2469.98	86982	2547.26	585130	17369.73
INDEX OPTIONS	226394	6617.13	219970	6409.43	1607231	47296.74
STOCK FUTURES	53579	1508.77	91117	2564.66	1229908	32653.84
STOCK OPTIONS	11259	318.42	11932	337.05	19773	556.92
		10914.29		11858.40		97877.23
FII SELL IN F&O	944.11		FII SELL IN INDEX FUTURES			77.29 CR
FII NET BUY	25.6 CR		DII NET SELL			4.8 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 11-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	46132	1342.55	113238	3293.51	560908	16273.84
INDEX OPTIONS	150579	4325.45	101167	2933.59	1562799	45008.21
STOCK FUTURES	35425	969.68	51489	1405.76	1197906	31134.57
STOCK OPTIONS	7837	219.61	7393	209.52	17188	472.77
FII SELL IN F&O	985.08 CR		FII SELL IN INDEX FUTURES			1950.96 CR
FII NET SELL	691.22 CR		DII NET BUY			263.81 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty
(closing price is the daily settlement price of futures contracts)

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for week ended 9th April. 2011

Nifty started the week on a positive note but failed to move past the resistance line, and ended dead  flat 5842 as compared to previous weekly close at 5654.

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 

 Elliot Wave Count:
  a move past 5681 eliminated the previous wave count possibility, currently we have two possibilities

 

BUZZING NIFTY:ELLIOT WAVE COUNT

 

 1). The corrective wave from 6339 in the form of ABC correction,where B is under making, or is it completed???? and C wave down to follow. If A=C then nifty might slip to sub 5000 levels, for that the 2nd possiblity of corrective 5 wave formation, has to be invalidated.

2). Up move from 5177, with 3rd under process and wave 4 could bring nifty to 5690 odd level,if nifty gets support at 5690 and start moving up then the 1st wave count gets invalid. lets see how the price action in the coming week decides the direction of nifty, will update on this as prices unfolds .

 Ichimoku: Gave a weak buy signal on 23^th March with the nifty around 5420 level  and nifty trading below the KOMU but the rise during the week not only took nifty into the cloud but managed to move wall past the upper boundary of the cloud,For the first time since the fall from Jan the price action have moved above the cloud, indicating the power of the bulls at the moment, the first sign of weakness was seen on Friday when the price action was below Tenken Sen, Nifty trading below 5845 will give some hope to the bears.

BUZZINGNIFTY:ICHIMOKU CROSS

 

BollingerBand: After trading near the top band of bollinger bears were finally able to bring a hault to the price movement , the next support would be around the mid line of the band currently @ 5646.

BUZZINGNIFTY: BOLLINGER BAND

 

 In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band,  cleared the first resistance by moving past the mid value of the bollinger and trading above it , on its way up it could take nifty to 6100+ odd levels, the current support is around 5694 level.

BUZZINGNIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

 

DEATH CROSS( 50DMA Crossing  below 200DMA)

The DEATH CROSS was Formed in Nifty on 4th March 2011, It is considered highly Bearish, The Last Time when we saw this formation Nifty slipped from 4800 levels to 2300 odd Levels, as the name itself indicates highest degree of Bearishness

However  nifty decided to move past 50&200 DMA,the bears will hope to do major damage as long as 200 remains below 50 sma.

Recently  there was a similar cross in S&P Index in US, but the Price movement proved otherwise,will this happen to our markets as well, currently the support of 200dma is at 5717, below which nifty gets weak.

BUZZINGNIFTY: NIFTY DEATH CROSS

BULLS/ BEAR POWER

This  indicates the power of the BULL/ BEAR as compared to the price action.
As can be seen in the Chart that the bears power increased during the week, whereas the bull-power indicator has not been showing weakness in the strength. A fall from 5944 level in the past week indicate that the bulls are loosing the momentum at the moment.

 

BUZZINGNIFTY: BULL/BEAR POWER

 

  

  GARTLEY BEARISH:  BAT


Nifty got resisted at 5943, just short of its target of 5965, the detailed analysis of this pattern, and possible targets can be found in previous post

BUZZINGNIFTY:GARTLEY BEARISH BAT

PINHEAD REVERSAL IN WEEKLY CHART

The weekly open and close at 5842 and a long tail formed a pinhead which is a reversal pattern if formed at the top,the confirmation of the same would only be possible if nifty continue to trade below the weekly close.

BUZZINGNIFTY : PINHEAD REVERSAL

  

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT;As can be seen in the chart the support is at 5791, the line shows nifty got resisted at it several times, now this should act as support, for nifty to continue its journey north, the resistance is near 5906 level for the week

BUZZINGNIFTY: SUPPORT LINE

For the week support is seen near 5691 level and resistance near 5906, risk reward ratio for the positions taken near these levels would be high near these levels, a break of this range will give clear direction to nifty .

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 08-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	45634	1339.95	72760	2128.33	573998	16799.41
INDEX OPTIONS	182931	5269.96	139139	4039.38	1503663	43707.83
STOCK FUTURES	42385	1112.16	61366	1672.69	1181580	31038.03
STOCK OPTIONS	8583	242.48	8581	240.42	16818	465.85
FII SELL IN F&O	116.28 CR		FII SELL IN INDEX FUTURES			788.37 CR
FII NET BUY	384.85CR		DII NET SELL			128.4 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 07-Apr-2011

	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	27895	823.00	37036	1092.09	578288	17065.30
INDEX OPTIONS	115190	3335.21	102345	2994.07	1446293	42351.37
STOCK FUTURES	33894	922.07	46864	1281.05	1174651	31250.88
STOCK OPTIONS	5912	165.64	6643	184.72	16820	469.12
FII SELL IN F&O		306.01 CR	FII SELL IN INDEX OPTIONS			269.09 CR
FII NET BUY		220.59 CR		DII NET SELL		212.16 CR
Notes:
Both buy and sell positions have been considered
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
Value & Open Interest at the end of day:
Options Value (End of day) = Underlying Close Price * Qty
Futures Value (End of day) = Closing Futures Price * Qty

NIFTY CONTINUATION OF PATTERN- POSSIBLE TARGET

BUZZING NIFTY : GARTLEY(BAT) PATTERN

As of now it looks like the (BAT with target of 5965 ) gartley pattern is over, as can be seen as the Wednesdays candle formed the top,
Gartley  based on Fibonacci Retracement and Extention has targets based on retracement of the CD leg of the formation.
TIME TARGET: The previous patterns took almost twice the time taken by CD leg of the formation, for this pattern to yield desired results the time horizon would be 57-76 days
PRICE TARGET: Technical Target of these pattern varies, Ideal point to book profit is between 61.8%-78.6%, but in the past instances the prices have retraced more then 161.8% of the CD Leg.    Possible Targets of Pattern

1. 23.6%---5776.49
2. 38.2%---5672.58
3. 50%-----5588.60
4. 61.8%---5504.62
5. 78.6%---5385.05
6. 88.7%---5313.17
7. 100%----5232.75
8. 114.6%--5128.84
9. 123.6%--5064.79
10.  127.2%-5039.17
11. 138.2%--4960.9
12. 150%----4876.9
13.  161.8%-4792

 
  CONTD FROM LAST POST........

AS INDICATED ON MONDAY,THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETED ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BE CAUTIOUS WITH ALL THE LONGS, AND PLACE PROPER STOP LOSS IN ALL THE POSITIONS.

 CONTD FROM LAST POST........
The first post regarding continuation of patterns in Nifty first posted on 16th Feb 2011, at that time AB up was under formation.
Subsequent post on 26th Feb indicated BC was near over and larger CD could start.
As the price action in the last week indicates making of CD leg of the formation, will have to watch if the move really is on the way up to complete the formation.
Below is the detailed analysis of the earlier formations and the possible targets for the current formation



Down Trend 1( Start of continuation Patterns)
BAT PATTERN(BEARISH)
fall 6284 to 5966 = 318 points in 5 days
rise 5966 to 6151= 186 points or 58.5% in 3 days
fall 6151 to 5937= 214 points or 115% in 4 days
rise 5937 to 6338= 410 points or 195%in 5 days
PATTERN COMPLETED
resulting in a bigger fall to 5690 in 15 days

Down Trend 2(Larger Pattern)
GARTLEY( BEARISH)

fall 6338 to 5690 = 648 points in 15days

rise 5690 to 6069= 379 points or 58.5% in 6 days

fall 6069 to 5721=348 points or 90% in 5 days

rise 5721 to 6181= 460 points or 135%in 16 days
PATTERN COMPLETED 
 resulting in a bigger fall to 5177 in 15 days

Down Trend 3(Largest in the making)
POSSIBLE FORMATION

BAT / ALTERNATE BAT/ CRAB PATTERN(ALL BEARISH)
fall 6181 to 5177  = 1004 points in 37 days

rise 5177 to 5599= 422 points in 7 days

fall 5599 to 5232= 367 points in 7 days


IF THE NIFTY GETS SUPPORT FROM HERE THEN POSSIBLE TARGETS

BAT PATTERN


a).rise 5232 to 5965= 733 points in 35-40 days
b)..rise 5232 to 6310= 1078 points in 35-40 days


ALTERNATE BAT PATTERN


a).rise 5232 to 6065= 833 points in 35-40 days
b)..rise 5232 to 6191= 959 points in 35-40 days


CRAB PATTERN


a).rise 5232 to 6383= 1151 points in 35-40 days
b)..rise 5232 to 6799= 1567 points in 35-40 days



In reference to the post read:
BUZZING NIFTY: FOLLOWUP POST 3 NIFTY CONTINUATION OF PATTERNS
BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CONTINUATION OF PATTERNS--FOLLOWUP POST 2
BUZZING NIFTY: FOLLOWUP POST NIFTY CONTINUATION OF PATTERNS
BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CONTINUATION OF PATTERNS