NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for week ended 1st April. 2011

Nifty started the week on a positive note and continued to rise through out the week before giving a flat close on Friday and closed at 5826 as compared to previous weekly close at 5654. A good gain of nearly 170 points for the week, The April contract started on a negative note, with immediate resistance at previous days high of 5873, unless that is crossed the bears have some hope for this expiry.

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 

 Elliot Wave Count:
Although i am not very good at EW readings but this is how i see them at the moment, a move past 5681 eliminated the previous wave count possibility, currently we have two possibilities

 

BUZZING NIFTY:ELLIOT WAVE COUNT

 

 1). The corrective wave from 6339 in the form of ABC correction,where B is under making, or is it completed???? and C wave down to follow. If A=C then nifty might slip to sub 5000 levels, for that the 2nd possiblity of corrective 5 wave formation, has to be invalidated.

2). Up move from 5177, with 3rd under process and wave 4 could bring nifty to 5690 odd level,if nifty gets support at 5690 and start moving up then the 1st wave count gets invalid. lets see how the price action in the coming week decides the direction of nifty, will update on this as prices unfolds .

 Ichimoku: Gave a weak buy signal on 23^th March with the nifty around 5420 level  and nifty trading below the KOMU but the rise during the week not only took nifty into the cloud but managed to move wall past the upper boundary of the cloud,For the first time since the fall from Jan the price action have moved above the cloud, indicating the power of the bulls at the moment, the first sign of weakness would be seen once nifty starts trading in the cloud roughly at 5715 level.

BUZZING NIFTY:ICHIMOKU PRICE ABOVE CLOUD

 

BollingerBand: As indicated last week despite trading above the upper range of the bollinger band nifty continued to do the same throughout the week, the opening on Monday and price action for the first two days of the week will help to analyze the coming moment in nifty

BUZZING NIFTY: BOLLINGER BAND

 In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band,  cleared the first resistance by moving past the mid value of the bollinger and trading above it , on its way up it could take nifty to 6100+ odd levels, the current support is around 5707 level.

BUZZING NIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

 

DEATH CROSS( 50DMA Crossing  below 200DMA)

The DEATH CROSS was Formed in Nifty on 4th March 2011, It is considered highly Bearish, The Last Time when we saw this formation Nifty slipped from 4800 levels to 2300 odd Levels, as the name itself indicates highest degree of Bearishness

However  nifty decided to move past 50&200 DMA,

Recently  there was a similar cross in S&P Index in US, but the Price movement proved otherwise,will this happen to our markets as well, currently the support of 200dma is at 5704, below which nifty gets weak.

BUZZING NIFTY: DEATH CROSS

BULLS/ BEAR POWER

This is one indicator which i,ve recently added to the study, this simply indicates the power of the BULL/ BEAR as compared to the price action.
As can be seen in the Chart that the bears power has been reducing, whereas the bull-power indicator has seen a sudden rise and given a breakout from the range, indicating the bulls are not only gaining the control over bears but also able to move the prices above the range. A fall from 5873 level in the last two days indicate that the bulls are loosing the momentum at the moment  whereas there is no increase in bear power, indicated that the bears are not confident at the moment.

BUZZING NIFTY:BULL/BEAR POWER

  BEARISH FLAG
In one of the previous post we saw a triangle formation and a bearish flag in Nifty, although the triangle  as well as the flag has given a breakout, but will have to keep an eye on the false breakout, before reassumption of the actual trend



GARTLEY BEARISH: ALTERNATE BAT


Nifty got resisted at the lower boundary of the bat formation after touching 5873 nifty fell sharply, however the time target for the formation is till 6th April, since this is a bearish pattern nifty would slip to previous low around 5233.

BUZZING NIFTY: ALTERNATE BAT

NARROW RANGE 7


If a price bar's range is less than the previous 6 bars' ranges (measured independently) it is said to have the narrowest range in 7 days or NR7, its implies  reversal of the trend or loosing of the momentum.

BUZZING NIFTY: NR7

RESISTANCE;As can be seen in the chart there are multiple resistances near 5935-65 range, a move past these resistances will see nifty continuing the journey north.

BUZZING NIFTY: RESISTANCE LINE

For the week support is seen near 5700 level and resistance near 5965, risk reward ratio for the positions taken near these levels would be high near these levels.