NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for week ended 6th May. 2011

Nifty started the week on a very negative note and continued to fall through out the week before giving a dead cat bounce or short covering on Friday close on Friday and closed at 5551 as compared to previous weekly close at 5751. A good fall of nearly 200 points for the week, The May contract started on a negative note, and open interest data showing huge short building in Nifty

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 

 Ichimoku: Gave a weak sell signal on 28^th April with the nifty around 5797 level  and nifty entered the   the KOMU but the rise on friday saw nifty moving above cloud thus weakning the selling pressure, fail to cross 5600 by Thursday and nifty will become weak as price would be in the cloud again.

BUZZING NIFTY : ICHIMOKU WEAK SELL SIGNAL

BollingerBand: For 3 days in a row nifty closed below the lower bollinger band , the rise was expected but that was more of a profit booking, and sudden dip in Crude Prices, nifty can rise from here to test the Mid level of the Band around 5769 level

BUZZING NIFTY : BOLLINGER BAND

 In the weekly chart the Nifty is trading below the Mid level of the band currently around 5669, fail to clear this during the week and nifty may continue the journey south to test the lower level of the band which is currently around 5200 odd level.

BUZZING NIFTY : BOLLINGER BAND

In the month chart however the story seems different, as nifty took the support of the mid band of the level at 5445, nifty is yet to give a monthly close below the mid-level of the band for long, a close below 5445 would be yet another indication of the nifty entering the bearish zone,

 

  GARTLEY BEARISH: ALTERNATE BAT

As discussed on several occasions in the past, nifty started moving down and already achieved 4th target,
From earlier update::
Nifty got resisted at the lower boundary of the bat formation after touching 5873 nifty fell sharply, however the time target for the formation is till 6th April, since this is a bearish pattern nifty would slip to previous low around 5233.

BUZZING NIFTY: ALTERNATE BAT

BULLISH GARTLEY: BAT/CRAB PATTERN: 
If this is a BAT formation then this might have completed the CD leg and now the up-move should follow, but if this is a CRAB in formation then the last Leg CD would complete between 5243-4997, however this is not a perfect formation as the above bearish pattern.


 
TRIANGLE FORMATION IN WEEKLY CHART;As can be seen in the chart the Nifty broke the lower line of the triangle but managed to close inside the triangle, if this was a false breakdown then nifty should start moving up to test the upper boundary of the triangle roughly near 5870 level, but a fall below 5229 during the week would be highly desired by the Bears camp who have a huge short built up since the start of the month.




For the week support is seen near 5500 level and resistance near 5600, risk reward ratio for the positions taken near these levels would be high near these levels. Since the trend is down any long position created should be properly hedged. As per the open interest setup looks loke a good support near 5400 level and resistance at 5600 level.
Expected high for the week 5663- Expected low for the week is 5331