NIFTY HOURLY CHANNEL

Nifty falling in a channel.
Trading near the top of the channel resistance line.
Breakout above the line would give roughly 130 points move.
Fail to cross will see nifty testing the support line of the channel

STOCKS HITTING NEW 52 WEEK LOW as on 19th DEC 2011

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK ENDED 16th DEC 2011

Nifty started the week with a gap up opening ut was unable to sustain the above it for long and the sharp rally on Friday shattered the hopes of the bulls, and nifty closed at its 52week low, the broader market suggest that the bottom is still to be achieved.

Nifty closed the week with 215 points loss over the previous week or 4.4% down

 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 
Still in sell mode and the price is below the conversion line , base line and the cloud showing the weakness in the market.

Bollinger Band:Nifty closed at 52weeks low and is currently at the bottom of the band in day/week and monthly chart, but the band has just started to expand in day chart which indicates that more low are possible on the index, the first task for the bulls to achieve is pulling nifty near mid of the band in day chart.

 

NIFTY support and resistance

Currently there are two channels in Nifty.

 

   The first chart shows the larger channel from the top at 6339 level, through out the year, price action has been within this channel, and currently the index is near the bottom of the channel, and is likely to give another good trade setup as the bulls would like to defend the channel, and the bears would be hoping to break-down from the channel,good positional trades can be taken with small stop-loss in either direction at the bottom of the channel.

  38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, is trading in symmetrical patterns through out the year and this time also the price gets rejected in the first attempt to conquer 38DEMA and has give yet another good short trade.

The second channel is formed within the bigger channel and in line chart it indicates the bottom of the channel, it also give an idea about the EW typical 4th wave false break-out, and the swiftness in the fall suggest that nifty could be in the 5th wave of the fall.

NIFTY HEAD AND SHOULDER FORMATION:

a good head and shoulder is formed in the Nifty, the first chart shows the good formation

 

the line chart suggest that the neak line is broken, however in recent past the pattern has not achieved the desired results due to high popularity and wide use, keep an eye on the price action as it unfolds as it is likely to trap the weaker bears and also the newer entrants

the second charts shows the possible target of the H&S pattern. the length of the Head was 638 points and thid could be the most obvious target for the pattern, the neck line was broken near 4688 level so the target would be near 4050 level, but it is advisable to use Fibonacci levels to part book shorts and to make reentry at the resistances as they are formed.

 NIFTY POSSIBLE ROUNDING TOP FORMATION:

A chart pattern used in technical analysis which is identified by price movements that, when graphed, form the shape of an upside down "U". A rounding top may form at the end of an extended upward trend and indicates a reversal in the long-term price movement. The pattern can develop over several weeks, months or even years, and is considered a rare occurrence by many traders.

The chart below illustrates a rounding top.

NIFTY BROADNING FORMATION
A pattern that occurs during high volatility, when a security shows great movement with little direction. The formation is identified by a series of higher pivot highs and lower pivot lows. A trendline drawn over the pivot highs and under the pivot lows frames out the widening pattern. It looks like a megaphone and, in fact, it is also known by that name. 
 

 

 

Broadening Formation
As the two trendlines diverge from the apex, the pattern resembles a reverse version of a symmetrical triangle. This pattern is considered quite rare, but is useful in helping technicians to identify swing trades, rather than a trend trades.

PREVIOUS WEEK:
 The trade setup last week  enabled us  with two shorting opportunities during the week the first on was at the beginning of the week to sell near the pivot at 4932 level( the top made was 4910& the open and high were almost same 4906&4910) the second opportunity was a break below 4724 level , which gave near 100 points returns( the low made was 4628)


THE WEEK AHEAD:

Expected High /Low for the week 4780/4498 with 4710 being the pivot point for the week, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week. buying near 4510-25 levels with SAR below 4480 level and taking short positions near 4760-80 with SAR above 4800 level should be the strategy for traders with no position, the SAR traders are short from 4900 level and have part booked should also rebuild positions near the Pivot and the expected top.

NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE IN HOUR CHART/ POSITIVE DIVERGENCE

Nifty bullish falling wedge formation in hourly charts, the support comes near 4650 odd levels, a break above 4774 would confirm short term reversal on the index, might target 5090-5100 odd level.

Price behavior in nifty suggest another bullish possibility in the form of positive divergence in both MACD and 9RSI, if nifty manages to hold on to the support line indicated in the above chart, these divergence would ensure a good run for the bulls at-least in short term.

Nifty is holding the current lows also favors the possiblity of Gartley pattern in day chart posted earlier
refer link.
http://buzzingnifty.blogspot.com/2011/12/nifty-trade-setup-for-week-12-17dec.html

NIFTY BEARISH RISING WEDGE IN 15 MINS CHART

From the lows of 4730, nifty is making a rising wedge pattern which is bearish in nature, a confirmation of the same would be a break below the support line, also it gives good trade opportunity near the top of the wedge.
 The target of the wedge would be the low of the formation or 4730on spot nifty.

NIFTY TRADE SETUP FOR THE WEEK 12-17DEC 2011

Nifty continues to trade in the range, after quick recovery from the low of 4639 the index is slowly moving towards the bottom.
A bearish Gartley is in the making and if nifty finds support between 4680-4720 levels the we would be moving north to complete the pattern.

TRADE SETUP FOR THE WEEK: Expected high /low for the week 4982/4724, with pivot at 4932, positions taken near these levels would yield good returns, SAR traders are short near the pivot since last Friday and already part booked at 50& 100 points respectively

NIFTY- ISLAND REVERSAL AND EVENING STAR FORMATION(BEARISH)

With today's gapdown opening nifty made a island reversal pattern , in this case this is bearish in nature and stop-loss for shorts taken at this level would be a close above 5036 level.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 07-Dec-2011

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK ENDED 3rd DEC 2011

Nifty started the week with a gap up opening and continued to trade near our level of 4791 for some time before moving up, Thursday and Friday nifty gained momentum and gave good gains .

The index gained good 340 points or 7.2% and settled at 5050 most of the front-line stocks also showed good recovery from the bottom, with major central banks globally uniting to fight the current crises , banking stocks hold promising outlook at-least for the short-mid term.

 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 
Still in sell mode but gave positive signals throughout the week, firstly by clearing the base and conversion line and finally conquering the cloud, a buy signal from here would only add more strength to the bulls because this would be above the cloud and would be considered strong in terms of the parameter of the indicator.

Bollinger Band:Friday close ensured that Nifty closed above the mid of the band in both the daily and weekly chart indicating momentum in favor of the bulls.

 

NIFTY support and resistance

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4640 nifty is moving in a narrowing formation, the current formations looks like a triangle , nifty is likely to continue withing this formation for some more time, however a breakout/down from the range will decide the further direction on the index.Nifty broke the channel but managed to close the previous week above the trend line and this week saw a good bounce from the lows.

   

 

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, nifty managed to close the week above this EMA at 4996 level, which should give support to nifty now, else bears would again be in control.

FIBONACCI PROJECTION

Fibonacci projection in nifty shows that nifty has reached the resistance by completing the retracement of the previous move, nifty managed to close above the resistance at 5120 level, how ever a move below this level would open the gates for another down move, aggressive shorts to be taken below this level only.

       

 FIBONACCI CHANNEL:

Nifty Fibo channel from the fall from 6339 to the lows of 4639  shows the price action has been in a channel and this bounce from the lows has been fast and could result in the change of the trend ,it may be early indications but so far there has been no exhaustion sign or development of any divergence to bring about a pause to this up-moveon Friday nifty managed to clear the 61.8% at 5004 level and should now target 78.6%at 5153 and 88.7%at 5239, the support is at 50%at 4900 level and below that 38.2% at 4793 level

NIFTY STOCHASTIC AND MACD:

As indicated last week, MACD has started to show reversal signs indication a short trem bottom is in place at 4640 level, the indicator gave another indication of the upmove to continue and there is no sign of reversal yet.

Stochastic has given good trade setups by giving early indications of overbought and oversold conditions shows that there is steam left for more upside possibility.

As indicated in the previous post the Stochastic has also reached the oversold territory, and a technical bounce either in form of flat correction or until the stochastic reading starts indication of overbought zone.

 NIFTY POSSIBLE ROUNDING TOP FORMATION:

A chart pattern used in technical analysis which is identified by price movements that, when graphed, form the shape of an upside down "U". A rounding top may form at the end of an extended upward trend and indicates a reversal in the long-term price movement. The pattern can develop over several weeks, months or even years, and is considered a rare occurrence by many traders.

The chart below illustrates a rounding top.

NIFTY BROADNING FORMATION
A pattern that occurs during high volatility, when a security shows great movement with little direction. The formation is identified by a series of higher pivot highs and lower pivot lows. A trendline drawn over the pivot highs and under the pivot lows frames out the widening pattern. It looks like a megaphone and, in fact, it is also known by that name. 
 

 

 

Broadening Formation

As the two trendlines diverge from the apex, the pattern resembles a reverse version of a symmetrical triangle. This pattern is considered quite rare, but is useful in helping technicians to identify swing trades, rather than a trend trades.

PREVIOUS WEEK:
 The trade setup last week  enabled us  to short at 4790 level and as we were stopped out early in the week and reversed to long  above 4820, gave more then 230 points for the week


THE WEEK AHEAD:

Expected High /Low for the week 5210.25-4902.70with 4955 being the pivot point for the week, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week. buying near 4915-25 levels with SAR below 4900 level and taking short positions near 5190-5115 with SAR above 5220 level should be the strategy for traders with no position, those who part booked at 4870& 4920 level should rebuild longs near 4965 and 4910 levels and hedge/part book near 5190 level

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 01-Dec-2011

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 30-Nov-2011

FII Trading Activity - November 2011 (Provisional Figures)

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK ENDED 26TH NOV 2011

Nifty yet again started the week on a negative note and reached the lows of 4640 level, before closing near its 52 weeks low at 4710 ,a 196 points loss over previous week or nearly 4percent cut on the index.

 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 
Gave a sell signal last week and the price action was within the cloud and was a moderate signal but bears managed to pull the index to new lows and in the process nifty moved below the cloud making the sell stronger, the early signs of any reversal in the trend would be only on a close above the conversion line which is near 4887 level.

Bollinger Band:this is the third straight time when the prices have been rejected above the mid of the weekly bollinger charts and moved down to test the lower band. which is sub 4600 level for the week

 

NIFTY support and resistance

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4640 nifty is moving in a narrowing formation, the current formations looks like a triangle , nifty is likely to continue withing this formatio for some more time, however a breakout/down from the range will decide the further direction on the index.Nifty broke the channel but managed to close the week above the trend line. if the index manages to stay above this trend line then this likely false breakdown will help index breakout from the channel,however if the trend-line is broken then the bear party would continue for long.

   

 

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,gave yet another 500 points move, the stochastics has been showing oversold condition for some time now and any bounce from here would give another selling opportunity.

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5400-4640 level, indicated immediate resistance at 23% at 4819 level and 38% at 4930 level l.

       

 FIBONACCI EXTENSION:

Nifty retraced more then 100 of the rise from 4720-5400 level, only a  move past 4865 would change the short term trend in favor of the bulls, however fail to stay above 4742 level would see nifty falling to 4560 or 123% followed by 138% at 4460 levels.

NIFTY STOCHASTIC AND MACD:

MACD has started to show reversal signs indication a short trem bottom is in place at 4640 level

 

The Stochastic has also reached the oversold territory, and a technical bounce either in form of flat correction or until the stochastic reading starts indication of overbought zone this looks like a pause in the down move for the moving averages to catch up the price action.

 PREVIOUS WEEK:
 The trade setup last week  enabled us to book part profits near 4676 levels, and aggressive longs taken around this level should be managed with proper trailing stop-loss.


THE WEEK AHEAD: Holiday season which is set to reduce the volumes in all markets and heavy sell-off by the FII;s in cash and futures are not very encouraging signs for the bulls and any rally from here on would be sold-off.

Expected High /Low for the week 4791.5-4557.5with 4740 being the pivot point for the week, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week. buying near 4560-75 levels with SAR below 4545 level and taking short positions near 4780-95 with SAR above 4820 level should be the strategy for traders with no position, those who part booked at 4676 level should reenter shorts around the above levels.

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY GMMA UPDATE 10%+ returns

BUZZING NIFTY : GMMA  UPDATE

 The indicator gave returns of more then 12.5% on the index after we spotted the formation.






pls refer the earlier post where the formation was spotted in the  WEEKEND ANALYSIS
 http://buzzingnifty.blogspot.com/search/label/GMMA

NIFTY WEEKLY TRADE SETUP

PREVIOUS WEEK: The week was as per the plan , we got thee trades .First trade sold around 5230 was covered at 5070 giving good 160 points profit, second trade was stopped out at 15 points loss, bought at 5070points and stopped and reversed at 5055 and the third trade gave us another 155 points as nifty after slipping below 4850 level managed to close near 4900 level. This week again we cover the entire move for the week. with 290 points profit ofr the week

THE WEEK AHEAD:With nifty near the bottom of the range of 4720-5160, gave a false break out by moving past 5350 level is now back in the range buying near supports and selling near the resistance has given good profits, only a break of the range would give a larger trade setup.

Expected range for the week 4676 -5068, trades taken near these levels would give good trade setups.

For the conservative traders Buying near 4670-85 with SAR below 4660 and selling near 5060-70 with SAR above 5080 should be the strategy 

For aggressive traders Sold below 5040 with SAR above 5130

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 11TH NOV 2011

Uncertainty over European crisis and downgrade of Indian banking industry rating by moody's, saw nifty testing the breakout range, which was achieved after a consolidation of more then 10 weeks. Nifty closed the week at 5168 nearly 114 points, roughly 2% lower then previous week close of 5284

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 

Ichimoku gave a buy signal  near 5040 level on 18th oct, during the week nifty after trading above the cloud moved back in the cloud below 5220, still in buy mode but the bulls are fast loosing the strength and a break below the base line at 5064 would favor the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO

Bollinger Band: Nifty  tested  the top of the band  moved down, on Friday nifty closed below  the rising  mid of the band around 5180 level.Price behaviour in Nifty during the first week of Nov suggested that the short term top is in place and correction/consolidation is in process.

BUZZING NIFTY: DAY BOLLINGER

WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND: In the weekly charts Nifty is rising from the bottom of the band, mid of the BB of the week is roughly around 5180 level and previous week close was rejected at the mid of the band, a break below the mid of the band on closing basis has turned the tide in favor of the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

 NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level rose sharply but failed to test the upper resistance line near 5470 level and started moving down after a big gap up opening near 5400 level, if fail to cross the resistance it would be heading toward making a newer low on the Index.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,(chart1)

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICES ABOVE 38DEMA

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICE NEAR 38DEMA

the 2nd chart shows when ever the price have moved below the moving average good shorting opportunity is presented in Nfity giving fabulous returns.

NIFTY  SHORT TERM CHANNEL

The last up-move of nifty is in a channel and a break of the channel indicated early signs of change in the trend.(chart 1)

BUZZING NIFTY:NIFTY CHANNEL SHORT TERM

in the 2nd chart as can be seen looks like another channel is forming  and can be termed as consolidation/correction of the up-move from 4720-5400 level

BUZZING NIFTY:NIFTY CHANNEL SHORT TERM

NIFTY FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT:

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMANT

Nifty retraced 38.2% of the up-move from 4720-5400 @5143 level if able to sustain above this the next leg up might unfold in coming weeks. however if nifty slips below this level it might target 50% at 5064 and 61.2% at 4985, below this nifty would be in total control of the bears.

 NIFTY RE TEST OF THE BREAKOUT LEVEL/POSSIBLE FALSE BREAKOUT:

Nifty is back at the previous resistance level of 5130-65 which was also the top of the range which was broken after 10 weeks.

BUZZING NIFTY:RE-TEST OF CHANNEL

5168 which is also the pivot for Monday holds the key for the next week, if manage to stay above the trend line may continue the journey north , but the break of this level will put the bal again in the bears camp who wont miss any trick to break the previous lows of 4720 level.

NIFTY - GMMA

THE MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGE :

the price behavior suggest that when ever the smaller moving averages have crossed the larger once after contracting the index has fallen more then 10%, will this happen this time around as well???

BUZZING NIFTY: GMMA

PREVIOUS WEEK: The week was as per the plan as suggested to sell near 5310-15 level, the high made during the week was 5317, those who traded as per the plan earned good 140 points and could cover the entire move for the week

THE WEEK AHEAD:With nifty back in the  range buying near supports and selling near the resistance has given good profits, only a break of the range would give a larger trade setup, until the range is resolved trade light and book smaller profits.

Expected range for the week 5068-5243, trades taken near these levels would give good trade setups.

For the conservative traders Buying near 5070-80 with SAR below  5055 and selling near 5235-40 with SAR near 5250 should be the strategy 

For aggressive traders Buying above 5070 with SAR below 5040 would yield good returns

Levels to watch till the range is resolved and a clear trend emerges 5068-5099-5105-5143-5168-5220- 5242

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!