NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 11TH NOV 2011

Uncertainty over European crisis and downgrade of Indian banking industry rating by moody's, saw nifty testing the breakout range, which was achieved after a consolidation of more then 10 weeks. Nifty closed the week at 5168 nearly 114 points, roughly 2% lower then previous week close of 5284

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 

Ichimoku gave a buy signal  near 5040 level on 18th oct, during the week nifty after trading above the cloud moved back in the cloud below 5220, still in buy mode but the bulls are fast loosing the strength and a break below the base line at 5064 would favor the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO

Bollinger Band: Nifty  tested  the top of the band  moved down, on Friday nifty closed below  the rising  mid of the band around 5180 level.Price behaviour in Nifty during the first week of Nov suggested that the short term top is in place and correction/consolidation is in process.

BUZZING NIFTY: DAY BOLLINGER

WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND: In the weekly charts Nifty is rising from the bottom of the band, mid of the BB of the week is roughly around 5180 level and previous week close was rejected at the mid of the band, a break below the mid of the band on closing basis has turned the tide in favor of the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

 NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level rose sharply but failed to test the upper resistance line near 5470 level and started moving down after a big gap up opening near 5400 level, if fail to cross the resistance it would be heading toward making a newer low on the Index.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,(chart1)

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICES ABOVE 38DEMA

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICE NEAR 38DEMA

the 2nd chart shows when ever the price have moved below the moving average good shorting opportunity is presented in Nfity giving fabulous returns.

NIFTY  SHORT TERM CHANNEL

The last up-move of nifty is in a channel and a break of the channel indicated early signs of change in the trend.(chart 1)

BUZZING NIFTY:NIFTY CHANNEL SHORT TERM

in the 2nd chart as can be seen looks like another channel is forming  and can be termed as consolidation/correction of the up-move from 4720-5400 level

BUZZING NIFTY:NIFTY CHANNEL SHORT TERM

NIFTY FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT:

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMANT

Nifty retraced 38.2% of the up-move from 4720-5400 @5143 level if able to sustain above this the next leg up might unfold in coming weeks. however if nifty slips below this level it might target 50% at 5064 and 61.2% at 4985, below this nifty would be in total control of the bears.

 NIFTY RE TEST OF THE BREAKOUT LEVEL/POSSIBLE FALSE BREAKOUT:

Nifty is back at the previous resistance level of 5130-65 which was also the top of the range which was broken after 10 weeks.

BUZZING NIFTY:RE-TEST OF CHANNEL

5168 which is also the pivot for Monday holds the key for the next week, if manage to stay above the trend line may continue the journey north , but the break of this level will put the bal again in the bears camp who wont miss any trick to break the previous lows of 4720 level.

NIFTY - GMMA

THE MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGE :

the price behavior suggest that when ever the smaller moving averages have crossed the larger once after contracting the index has fallen more then 10%, will this happen this time around as well???

BUZZING NIFTY: GMMA

PREVIOUS WEEK: The week was as per the plan as suggested to sell near 5310-15 level, the high made during the week was 5317, those who traded as per the plan earned good 140 points and could cover the entire move for the week

THE WEEK AHEAD:With nifty back in the  range buying near supports and selling near the resistance has given good profits, only a break of the range would give a larger trade setup, until the range is resolved trade light and book smaller profits.

Expected range for the week 5068-5243, trades taken near these levels would give good trade setups.

For the conservative traders Buying near 5070-80 with SAR below  5055 and selling near 5235-40 with SAR near 5250 should be the strategy 

For aggressive traders Buying above 5070 with SAR below 5040 would yield good returns

Levels to watch till the range is resolved and a clear trend emerges 5068-5099-5105-5143-5168-5220- 5242

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!