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Saturday, February 19, 2011

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for week ended 18th feb 2011

Nifty ended the week on a negative note, eating up most of the gains for the week,
All this happening too fast too much for the traders,

Let us see the Elliot Wave Count as posted last weekend :
wave 1 down: 6312-5762=560 points
wave 2 up : 5762-6152= 405 points
wave 3 down: 6152- 5177= 975 points
wave 4 up : ????????                      
      possibilities are23.6% @ 5177 to 5414= 237 points (achieved)
                           
38.2%@ 5177 to 5562= 385 points(achieved)
                            50% @ 5177 to 5681= 504 points??? is 4 up over?????
will have to see the price actions as it unfolds during the week,
Wave 5 to followup

 Ichimoku: Gave another bearish signal on 18th Feb  with the nifty falling below (5530) Kijun Sen a strong  signal indicating the weakness in the nifty(Ichimoku generated strong sell signal on 14th Jan @5829)

BollingerBand: Nifty on Thursday was able to cross 20 sma@5542 (midpoint of bollinger band) for the first time since 7th Jan, Fridays fall brought it back below 20 sma.

PCR: Despite Fridays fall there is not much change in the put-call-ratio, and the PCR closed @1.27 as compared to 1.21 on Thursday. PCR above 1.2 is always dangerous so either the PCR has to come down with less price action in the Nifty, or the Nifty has to come down to bring the PCR near 1.0.

Friday Factor: 4th Feb Friday nifty started a faster falling journey south from 5559 to touch 5177 to following Friday the 11th Feb , from there a faster replacement back to 5599 on Friday the 18th Feb ,another big fall on Friday, will this open another gate for a steeper fall. The volumes during the week was less then the average, only to be high on the closing day of the week.

Scam Hit Indian Economy: There is no respite for the investors, these scam keep coming like mushrooms in the early rain, at times even threatening the Govt's stability, FII's heavy selling during the past few weeks might well be a result of this.

European and American markets are continually on a rise, The Asian markets having mixed moment, we are under heavy pressure.Are FII's booking profits and moving to the more matured markets??

With the expiry around the corner things does not look pretty good for the small traders, holding above the 5400-5414 level and the markets can surge to another highs, a break below 5357 would add more pain.








1 comment:

Unknown said...

As indicated nifty took support @ the given level 5400-5414.

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NIFTY STOP AND REVERSE TRADING STRATEGY

NIFTY SAR(STOP AND REVERSE) FOR THE NEXT DAY IS POSTED ON DAILY BASIS ON FACEBOOK GROUP NIFTYHOLIC.

ALL VALUES ARE FOR SPOT NIFTY, TRADE THE FUTURES ACCORDINGLY

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SELL NIFTY BELOW 5405 AND GO LONG ABOVE 5430

IF HOLDS ON CLOSING BASIS

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PART BOOKED @5385=120 POINTS OR 6000 RS.

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