NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for week ended 19th March. 2011

Nifty ended yet another week on a negative note, eating up all the gains for the week,
On 7^th Feb the closing price of Nifty was 5376.95and on 18^th March nifty closed at 5373.70. Practically nifty has gone nowhere. The High during the period was 5608 and the Low Being 5177, the mid point of which is 5392.5. All in All a bad period for the day traders, with Stop-loss taken on both the sides.

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Elliot Wave Count:
wave 1 down: 6312-5762=560 points
wave 2 up : 5762-6152= 405 points
wave 3 down: 6152- 5177= 975 points
wave 4 up : ????????                      
      possibilities are23.6% @ 5177 to 5414= 237 points (achieved)
                            38.2%@ 5177 to 5562= 385 points(achieved)
                            50% @ 5177 to 5681= 504 points??? is 4 up over?????
Is it Flat Correction or a Triangle????  4^th still on or is it over???. will have to see the price actions as it unfolds during the week(Other EW possibilities also exist, to avoid any confusion to the readers posting only what looks like the most obvious count)
Wave 5 to follow

POSSIBLE ELLIOT WAVE FORMATION

 Ichimoku: Gave a weak buy signal on 4^th March with the nifty around 5420 level. Tenkan Sen crossed Kijun Sen indicating buy Signal, Komu has not been tested since 11^th Jan 2011, for the current week the Komu border is around 5445 which could act as resistance to the already generated buy signal, once the prices trade in the Komu cloud bulls will get strength.

ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO

BollingerBand: On daily charts a lot of action of the past fortnight has been around the Midpoint of the Bollinger Band, Indicating Indecision, Nifty closed Higher/ Lower then the Mid Band(20SMA) 5 times each during this period. Fridays fall brought it well below this Level.

 

NIFTY BOLLINGER BAND

 DEATH CROSS( 50DMA Crossing  below 200DMA)

The DEATH CROSS was Formed in Nifty on 4th March 2011, It is considered highly Bearish, The Last Time when we saw this formation Nifty slipped from 4800 levels to 2300 odd Levels, as the name itself indicates highest degree of Bearishness there is a lot to cheer in the bears camp at the moment. The only hope for the bulls is that the 200 DMA is still rising.( Ideally both moving averages should be moving down in this formation.)

DEATH CROSS

 DOLLAR INDEX: There is a steep falling wedge in formation in the DOLLAR INDEX, which is a reversal pattern, sooner or later the prices will start moving north which will definitely not be a good sign for the bulls.


RISING CRUDE PRICES: A lot of struggle is going on in the Oil Rich nations to break the Dictator Rules in the respective country, no sooner the matter is resolved there is another outbreak in the other country, keeping constant pressure on the Prices, India being a Net importer of the Oil will only have more pressure if there is major revolt or any interference from other countries, to uproot the Dictators off Power.

Tsunami Hit JAPANESE Economy: God have mercy on poor people of Japan who are facing the Wrath of the Gods, the leak of radiation is only raising the problems for the economy, the impact both in terms of Health and Economy will definitely hurt more.





 Also Read this as a port of the post
http://buzzingnifty.blogspot.com/2011/03/nifty-triangle-bearish-flag-formation.html