NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for week ended 9th April. 2011

Nifty started the week on a positive note but failed to move past the resistance line, and ended dead  flat 5842 as compared to previous weekly close at 5654.

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 

 Elliot Wave Count:
  a move past 5681 eliminated the previous wave count possibility, currently we have two possibilities

 

BUZZING NIFTY:ELLIOT WAVE COUNT

 

 1). The corrective wave from 6339 in the form of ABC correction,where B is under making, or is it completed???? and C wave down to follow. If A=C then nifty might slip to sub 5000 levels, for that the 2nd possiblity of corrective 5 wave formation, has to be invalidated.

2). Up move from 5177, with 3rd under process and wave 4 could bring nifty to 5690 odd level,if nifty gets support at 5690 and start moving up then the 1st wave count gets invalid. lets see how the price action in the coming week decides the direction of nifty, will update on this as prices unfolds .

 Ichimoku: Gave a weak buy signal on 23^th March with the nifty around 5420 level  and nifty trading below the KOMU but the rise during the week not only took nifty into the cloud but managed to move wall past the upper boundary of the cloud,For the first time since the fall from Jan the price action have moved above the cloud, indicating the power of the bulls at the moment, the first sign of weakness was seen on Friday when the price action was below Tenken Sen, Nifty trading below 5845 will give some hope to the bears.

BUZZINGNIFTY:ICHIMOKU CROSS

 

BollingerBand: After trading near the top band of bollinger bears were finally able to bring a hault to the price movement , the next support would be around the mid line of the band currently @ 5646.

BUZZINGNIFTY: BOLLINGER BAND

 

 In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band,  cleared the first resistance by moving past the mid value of the bollinger and trading above it , on its way up it could take nifty to 6100+ odd levels, the current support is around 5694 level.

BUZZINGNIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

 

DEATH CROSS( 50DMA Crossing  below 200DMA)

The DEATH CROSS was Formed in Nifty on 4th March 2011, It is considered highly Bearish, The Last Time when we saw this formation Nifty slipped from 4800 levels to 2300 odd Levels, as the name itself indicates highest degree of Bearishness

However  nifty decided to move past 50&200 DMA,the bears will hope to do major damage as long as 200 remains below 50 sma.

Recently  there was a similar cross in S&P Index in US, but the Price movement proved otherwise,will this happen to our markets as well, currently the support of 200dma is at 5717, below which nifty gets weak.

BUZZINGNIFTY: NIFTY DEATH CROSS

BULLS/ BEAR POWER

This  indicates the power of the BULL/ BEAR as compared to the price action.
As can be seen in the Chart that the bears power increased during the week, whereas the bull-power indicator has not been showing weakness in the strength. A fall from 5944 level in the past week indicate that the bulls are loosing the momentum at the moment.

 

BUZZINGNIFTY: BULL/BEAR POWER

 

  

  GARTLEY BEARISH:  BAT


Nifty got resisted at 5943, just short of its target of 5965, the detailed analysis of this pattern, and possible targets can be found in previous post

BUZZINGNIFTY:GARTLEY BEARISH BAT

PINHEAD REVERSAL IN WEEKLY CHART

The weekly open and close at 5842 and a long tail formed a pinhead which is a reversal pattern if formed at the top,the confirmation of the same would only be possible if nifty continue to trade below the weekly close.

BUZZINGNIFTY : PINHEAD REVERSAL

  

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT;As can be seen in the chart the support is at 5791, the line shows nifty got resisted at it several times, now this should act as support, for nifty to continue its journey north, the resistance is near 5906 level for the week

BUZZINGNIFTY: SUPPORT LINE

For the week support is seen near 5691 level and resistance near 5906, risk reward ratio for the positions taken near these levels would be high near these levels, a break of this range will give clear direction to nifty .