NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 17TH SEPT 2011

Nifty started the week on a negative  note but got good support at 4900 level and moved up-to 5143.6, but failed to close above 38% retracement  of 5740-4720 and previous week high of 5169, Friday as usual saw some profit booking at higher level and nifty managed to close at 5084 , roughly 2% gain over previous week. The RBI rate hike was in line with the expectations and turned out to be a non event, however markets were volatile on Friday due to the unexpected rate hike in the prices of petrol on Thursday night and despite closing at lower levels for the day nifty managed to sustain above the previous resistance of 5040-57 range.

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Elliot Wave Count:

  

 

As indicated last week the possibility of wave 4 continuing seems to be preferred choice at the moment the chart above indicates that nifty has completed corrective b of 4 and is currently in wave c of 4th , and if a=c("a" was 4720 to 5169= 449 points, "b" was 5169to 4911=258 points, now "c" likely to be 4911+449=5360)  then nifty mighty be moving to wards the unfilled gap of 5323 level, to be followed by 5th down. Alternate wave count is not marked to avoid confusion.

 Ichimoku: Gave a buy signal on Wednesday at 5038 odd level, since the price action is below the cloud this is considered as a week buy and the immediate resistance is likely to be at the cloud, which is currently at 5296 level.

Bollinger Band: Nifty trading above mid of the bollinger band gives some hope to the  bulls and may target 5180 odd level, however a move below the mid of BB at 4979 level would surely add to the strength of the bears who would love to drag nifty to the lower end of BB currently at 4774 odd level

 In the weekly chart the prices rose from the bottom of the bollinger band, still has a mammoth task of moving past mid bollinger ban currently at 5343 which coincides with the possible EW count and unfilled GAP  levels, only a  close above 5377 would change the midterm trend for nifty.

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level is now moving north and would be targeting 5550 odd levels.

   

  

BULLISH 5-0 PATTERN

Bearish Shark Pattern posted last week achieved the target of 4944 level and in the process also formed a possible 5-0 bullish pattern  with targets of 5182,5351 and 5619 

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011, previous Friday nifty failed to move past this all important MA and started another round of sell off.

This Friday was no exception and nifty found resistance at the same MA only a comfortable move past this level would add strength to the BULLS

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, indicated immediate resistance at 5110 level and the next hurdle would be to cross the 50% level at 5230 and above that is the unfilled gap Zone.

The week ahead: FII's and DII's continous buying from the lows of 4720 and  Quarterly/Half year end near the corner, MF/ INSURANCE companies also buying to keep the NAVS up will all help the bulls and also the retailers (stuck at higher levels, make an exit from the market).

 Nifty has made a range on Friday between 5075-5130, the break of the range would give early signs of the trend for the week, the weekly range of the week is 4977-5230, with 5046 being the pivot for the week

Remember the long/mid term trend of nifty is still down, only the short term trend has moved up.

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!