NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 30TH SEPT 2011

Nifty started the week on a highly negative note and almost reached the previous low 4720, but managed to protect the lows and the bulls were able to pull nifty to 5036 levels, some profit booking was seen at higher levels on Friday and nifty closed at 4943 or 20 points gain over previous weeks close

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Elliot Wave Count:

The complicated wave 4, as it is well known to give a false breakout before resuming the actual trend, could be still on and main 5th would get confirm on a close below 4756 level

 Ichimoku: Gave a buy signal  at 5038 odd level, since the price action was well below the cloud this is considered as a week buy and still in buy mode despite the fall to sub 4950 levels the Fridays close further weakened the bulls case by closing below Tanken Sen and Kijun Sen (Base and Conversion line) at 4944 and 4965 levels, fail to move above these would result in a strong sell signal because the price action is well below Komu- the cloud

Bollinger Band: Nifty managed to bounce from the bottom of the bollinger band and is now facing stiff resistance at the mid of the BB at 5016 level, and started moving down again , a fail to cross the mid BB will result in another fall to lower BB at 4845 level.

In the weekly chart the price is not rising from the bottom of the bollinger band instead the lower band is moving lower indicating continued weakness, immediate support is seen at 4711 level and only a  close above mid of BB which is roughly at 5286 would change the midterm trend for nifty.

 

 

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level moved up , but the bears are active and pulling it back to the bottom of the channel currently near 4600 level.

   

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, indicated last week, in the last week nifty moved below 23% retracement at 4948 level, clearly indicating weakness.

INVERTED BUMP AND RUN POSSIBLE FORMATION

BUZZING NIFTY : INVERTED BUMP AND RUN

The current setup in nifty suggest the formation of the inverted bump and run pattern , however this is very initial stage, but lets try to keep a watch on the possible formation and how the prices unfolds, a break above the current trend line would be the ray of hope for the bulls.

NIFTY LONG TERM CHART

Nifty is trading near the support as indicated in the chart, the trend line is drawn from the panic lows of 2008, a break below this trend line would be the real worry for long term investors, also the channel indicates the current down phase in the nifty, in both the cases a break above the resistance line would see nifty flying high to make newer and bigger top.

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY LONG TERM CHART

The week ahead: With a lot of negative news in the market, nifty is now trading near the earlier supports of 4911 and 4943 levels and will  turn into resistance once 4900 is taken out by the bears, and markets trading well below all moving averages, and Pivots.

Remember the long/mid term trend of nifty is  down, and the short term just turned down on Friday, during the previous week nifty moved in a range of 4905-5038 a break of the range is likely to give good short term direction to nifty.

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!