NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 21ST OCT 2011

The range in Nifty has narrowed to 5160-5040, and throughout the week nifty traded in this range. Any move beyond this range should give good short term direction to Nifty. Last week nifty closed at 5132 near the top of the range and got resisted at 5160 and moved down to 5010 on Tuesday but managed to close above 38DEMA, nifty ended the week at 5049 with a loss of nearly 83 points. 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 

Ichimoku gave a buy signal on Tuesday near 5040 level and most of the action during the week was well within the cloud Komu, Since the price action is within the cloud this is termed as buy with medium strength, however the close on Friday was below the conversion line keeping hope for the bears to drag nifty below the cloud which is roughly at 5000 odd level for the week

Bollinger Band: Nifty failed to test the top of the band for the 3rd time, and has started to move down again, shows continued weakness in the index , strength remains as long as nifty trades above the mid of the band around 4977 level.

9RSI has  turned down after showing signs of Reversal in the trend.

WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND: In the weekly charts Nifty is rising from the bottom of the band, mid of the BB of the week is roughly around 5216 level and only a weekly close above this level would be the first indication of reversal in the trend in favor of the Bulls.

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level is now moving north and would be targeting 5470 odd levels.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

NIFTY SUPPORT/RESISTANCE:

Nifty is trading near the top of the range(4720-5170), and a move past 5170, would target the Unfilled Gap area of 5325 level, however fail to clear the resistance would find Nifty slipping to the Support Zone of 4720-45 levels

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,only a comfortable move past 5020 level has add strength to the BULLS

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICES ABOVE 38DEMA

The 1st Chart is marked with the levels and price behavior throughout 2011.

The 2nd chart shows that nifty has managed to close above the all important moving average.

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, price moved above 38% retracement the next hurdle would be to cross the 50% level at 5213 and above that is the unfilled gap Zone.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT PRICE ABOVE 38.2%

SHORT TERM FIBO extension:( old chart still valid)

Nifty got resisted at 138% of the fall from 5035-4727 level at  5152, but managed to close above the 100% mark staying above this may target,5188 and 5224 levels below 5035 may favor the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI EXTENSION OF NIFTY

NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE:chart updated till previous week nifty already made good move past the wedge resistance line

Nifty is moving in a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish reversal pattern if formed at the bottom of the price action,  the breakout above 4917 are early indications of the change in trend in favor of the bulls, 

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY 20,50 100 SMA:
Nifty staying above 20and 50 DMA will target 100 dma @ 5255 level, however a close below 4998and 4977 would again turn in favor of the Bears.

 NIFTY BUMP AND RUN REVERSAL:

Nifty broke the down trend and the chart pattern suggest a reversal in Nifty, price staying above the trend line favors bulls

BUZZING NIFTY:BUMP AND RUN REVERSAL

THE WEEK AHEAD:With nifty trading in a narrow range buying near supports and selling near the resistance has given good profits, only a break of the range would give a larger trade setup, until the range is resolved trade light and book smaller profits.

Nifty closed near the support (5030-40)and if manage to hold-on to 4977 odd levels would again target the top of the range.

Expected range for the week 4956-5105, trades taken near these levels would give good trade setups.

Buying near 4965-76 with SAR at 4940 and selling near 5105-5115 with SAR near 5130 should be the strategy for the conservative traders

Levels to watch till the range is resolved and a clear trend emerges 4977-4998-5035-5065-5080-5105-5130-5160

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!