NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK ENDED 26TH NOV 2011

Nifty yet again started the week on a negative note and reached the lows of 4640 level, before closing near its 52 weeks low at 4710 ,a 196 points loss over previous week or nearly 4percent cut on the index.

 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 
Gave a sell signal last week and the price action was within the cloud and was a moderate signal but bears managed to pull the index to new lows and in the process nifty moved below the cloud making the sell stronger, the early signs of any reversal in the trend would be only on a close above the conversion line which is near 4887 level.

Bollinger Band:this is the third straight time when the prices have been rejected above the mid of the weekly bollinger charts and moved down to test the lower band. which is sub 4600 level for the week

 

NIFTY support and resistance

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4640 nifty is moving in a narrowing formation, the current formations looks like a triangle , nifty is likely to continue withing this formatio for some more time, however a breakout/down from the range will decide the further direction on the index.Nifty broke the channel but managed to close the week above the trend line. if the index manages to stay above this trend line then this likely false breakdown will help index breakout from the channel,however if the trend-line is broken then the bear party would continue for long.

   

 

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,gave yet another 500 points move, the stochastics has been showing oversold condition for some time now and any bounce from here would give another selling opportunity.

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5400-4640 level, indicated immediate resistance at 23% at 4819 level and 38% at 4930 level l.

       

 FIBONACCI EXTENSION:

Nifty retraced more then 100 of the rise from 4720-5400 level, only a  move past 4865 would change the short term trend in favor of the bulls, however fail to stay above 4742 level would see nifty falling to 4560 or 123% followed by 138% at 4460 levels.

NIFTY STOCHASTIC AND MACD:

MACD has started to show reversal signs indication a short trem bottom is in place at 4640 level

 

The Stochastic has also reached the oversold territory, and a technical bounce either in form of flat correction or until the stochastic reading starts indication of overbought zone this looks like a pause in the down move for the moving averages to catch up the price action.

 PREVIOUS WEEK:
 The trade setup last week  enabled us to book part profits near 4676 levels, and aggressive longs taken around this level should be managed with proper trailing stop-loss.


THE WEEK AHEAD: Holiday season which is set to reduce the volumes in all markets and heavy sell-off by the FII;s in cash and futures are not very encouraging signs for the bulls and any rally from here on would be sold-off.

Expected High /Low for the week 4791.5-4557.5with 4740 being the pivot point for the week, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week. buying near 4560-75 levels with SAR below 4545 level and taking short positions near 4780-95 with SAR above 4820 level should be the strategy for traders with no position, those who part booked at 4676 level should reenter shorts around the above levels.

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 11TH NOV 2011

Uncertainty over European crisis and downgrade of Indian banking industry rating by moody's, saw nifty testing the breakout range, which was achieved after a consolidation of more then 10 weeks. Nifty closed the week at 5168 nearly 114 points, roughly 2% lower then previous week close of 5284

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 

Ichimoku gave a buy signal  near 5040 level on 18th oct, during the week nifty after trading above the cloud moved back in the cloud below 5220, still in buy mode but the bulls are fast loosing the strength and a break below the base line at 5064 would favor the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO

Bollinger Band: Nifty  tested  the top of the band  moved down, on Friday nifty closed below  the rising  mid of the band around 5180 level.Price behaviour in Nifty during the first week of Nov suggested that the short term top is in place and correction/consolidation is in process.

BUZZING NIFTY: DAY BOLLINGER

WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND: In the weekly charts Nifty is rising from the bottom of the band, mid of the BB of the week is roughly around 5180 level and previous week close was rejected at the mid of the band, a break below the mid of the band on closing basis has turned the tide in favor of the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND

 NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level rose sharply but failed to test the upper resistance line near 5470 level and started moving down after a big gap up opening near 5400 level, if fail to cross the resistance it would be heading toward making a newer low on the Index.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,(chart1)

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICES ABOVE 38DEMA

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICE NEAR 38DEMA

the 2nd chart shows when ever the price have moved below the moving average good shorting opportunity is presented in Nfity giving fabulous returns.

NIFTY  SHORT TERM CHANNEL

The last up-move of nifty is in a channel and a break of the channel indicated early signs of change in the trend.(chart 1)

BUZZING NIFTY:NIFTY CHANNEL SHORT TERM

in the 2nd chart as can be seen looks like another channel is forming  and can be termed as consolidation/correction of the up-move from 4720-5400 level

BUZZING NIFTY:NIFTY CHANNEL SHORT TERM

NIFTY FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT:

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMANT

Nifty retraced 38.2% of the up-move from 4720-5400 @5143 level if able to sustain above this the next leg up might unfold in coming weeks. however if nifty slips below this level it might target 50% at 5064 and 61.2% at 4985, below this nifty would be in total control of the bears.

 NIFTY RE TEST OF THE BREAKOUT LEVEL/POSSIBLE FALSE BREAKOUT:

Nifty is back at the previous resistance level of 5130-65 which was also the top of the range which was broken after 10 weeks.

BUZZING NIFTY:RE-TEST OF CHANNEL

5168 which is also the pivot for Monday holds the key for the next week, if manage to stay above the trend line may continue the journey north , but the break of this level will put the bal again in the bears camp who wont miss any trick to break the previous lows of 4720 level.

NIFTY - GMMA

THE MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGE :

the price behavior suggest that when ever the smaller moving averages have crossed the larger once after contracting the index has fallen more then 10%, will this happen this time around as well???

BUZZING NIFTY: GMMA

PREVIOUS WEEK: The week was as per the plan as suggested to sell near 5310-15 level, the high made during the week was 5317, those who traded as per the plan earned good 140 points and could cover the entire move for the week

THE WEEK AHEAD:With nifty back in the  range buying near supports and selling near the resistance has given good profits, only a break of the range would give a larger trade setup, until the range is resolved trade light and book smaller profits.

Expected range for the week 5068-5243, trades taken near these levels would give good trade setups.

For the conservative traders Buying near 5070-80 with SAR below  5055 and selling near 5235-40 with SAR near 5250 should be the strategy 

For aggressive traders Buying above 5070 with SAR below 5040 would yield good returns

Levels to watch till the range is resolved and a clear trend emerges 5068-5099-5105-5143-5168-5220- 5242

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 21ST OCT 2011

The range in Nifty has narrowed to 5160-5040, and throughout the week nifty traded in this range. Any move beyond this range should give good short term direction to Nifty. Last week nifty closed at 5132 near the top of the range and got resisted at 5160 and moved down to 5010 on Tuesday but managed to close above 38DEMA, nifty ended the week at 5049 with a loss of nearly 83 points. 

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 

Ichimoku gave a buy signal on Tuesday near 5040 level and most of the action during the week was well within the cloud Komu, Since the price action is within the cloud this is termed as buy with medium strength, however the close on Friday was below the conversion line keeping hope for the bears to drag nifty below the cloud which is roughly at 5000 odd level for the week

Bollinger Band: Nifty failed to test the top of the band for the 3rd time, and has started to move down again, shows continued weakness in the index , strength remains as long as nifty trades above the mid of the band around 4977 level.

9RSI has  turned down after showing signs of Reversal in the trend.

WEEKLY BOLLINGER BAND: In the weekly charts Nifty is rising from the bottom of the band, mid of the BB of the week is roughly around 5216 level and only a weekly close above this level would be the first indication of reversal in the trend in favor of the Bulls.

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level is now moving north and would be targeting 5470 odd levels.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

NIFTY SUPPORT/RESISTANCE:

Nifty is trading near the top of the range(4720-5170), and a move past 5170, would target the Unfilled Gap area of 5325 level, however fail to clear the resistance would find Nifty slipping to the Support Zone of 4720-45 levels

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,only a comfortable move past 5020 level has add strength to the BULLS

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICES ABOVE 38DEMA

The 1st Chart is marked with the levels and price behavior throughout 2011.

The 2nd chart shows that nifty has managed to close above the all important moving average.

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, price moved above 38% retracement the next hurdle would be to cross the 50% level at 5213 and above that is the unfilled gap Zone.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT PRICE ABOVE 38.2%

SHORT TERM FIBO extension:( old chart still valid)

Nifty got resisted at 138% of the fall from 5035-4727 level at  5152, but managed to close above the 100% mark staying above this may target,5188 and 5224 levels below 5035 may favor the bears.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI EXTENSION OF NIFTY

NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE:chart updated till previous week nifty already made good move past the wedge resistance line

Nifty is moving in a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish reversal pattern if formed at the bottom of the price action,  the breakout above 4917 are early indications of the change in trend in favor of the bulls, 

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY 20,50 100 SMA:
Nifty staying above 20and 50 DMA will target 100 dma @ 5255 level, however a close below 4998and 4977 would again turn in favor of the Bears.

 NIFTY BUMP AND RUN REVERSAL:

Nifty broke the down trend and the chart pattern suggest a reversal in Nifty, price staying above the trend line favors bulls

BUZZING NIFTY:BUMP AND RUN REVERSAL

THE WEEK AHEAD:With nifty trading in a narrow range buying near supports and selling near the resistance has given good profits, only a break of the range would give a larger trade setup, until the range is resolved trade light and book smaller profits.

Nifty closed near the support (5030-40)and if manage to hold-on to 4977 odd levels would again target the top of the range.

Expected range for the week 4956-5105, trades taken near these levels would give good trade setups.

Buying near 4965-76 with SAR at 4940 and selling near 5105-5115 with SAR near 5130 should be the strategy for the conservative traders

Levels to watch till the range is resolved and a clear trend emerges 4977-4998-5035-5065-5080-5105-5130-5160

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 14TH OCT 2011

Nifty started the week with good strong rally on Monday and continued its journey north and closed near weekly high at 5132, a gain of good 246 points or 5% gains for the index.  Long legged doji or a pinhead  formed last week was followed up by a strong bull candle indicating initial signs of reversal from the lows of 4720. The current setup looks like a double bottom formation on the weekly charts.

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 

Ichimoku continue to be in sell mode but the price action is turning things around in the favor of the bulls, during the week nifty cleared the hurdles of Tanken sen, Kijun sen and the Komu, the prices have entered the cloud, the indicator will soon turn to buy mode and if the prices manage to clear the cloud this would be a strong buy

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO

Bollinger Band: Nifty started to rise from the lower BB and climbed above mid BB and nearing top of the band at 5201 odd level, how ever the previous two attempts have failed even to test the top of the band, in the weekly charts the immediate resistance is the mid of BB at 5275 odd level.

BUZZING NIFTY: BOLLINGER BAND

 

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level is now moving north and would be targeting 5470 odd levels.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

NIFTY RESISTANCE:

Nifty has reached the resistance line and previous two close despite showing strength have failed to clear the resistance

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY RESISTANCE

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,only a comfortable move past 5020 level has add strength to the BULLS

BUZZING NIFTY: PRICES ABOVE 38DEMA

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, price moved above 38% retracement the next hurdle would be to cross the 50% level at 5213 and above that is the unfilled gap Zone.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT PRICE ABOVE 38.2%

SHORT TERM FIBO extension:

Nifty got resisted at 61.8% of the fall from 5035-4727 level, a move past 5035 has change the short term trend in favor of the bulls, nifty cleared the 123% mark at  5107 level and is likely to target 5152,5188 and 5224 levels

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI EXTENSION OF NIFTY

NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE:chart updated till previous week nifty already made good move past the wedge resistance line

Nifty is moving in a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish reversal pattern if formed at the bottom of the price action,  the breakout above 4917 are early indications of the change in trend in favor of the bulls, 

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY- 9RSI SIGNALS: charts updated till previous week, the setup has worked well till now

BUZZING NIFTY: 9RSI--NIFTY PRICE BEHAVIOR

 9RSI- a tool to analyze oversold/overbought conditions besides showing relative strength, has been giving good trade setups and early indications of larger moves in the making, the chart shows  some instances where NIFTY--9RSI have given good setups marked as 1(1A-1B) 2(2A-2B) AND 3MARKED AS 3A&3B

1. In the 1st instance when nifty made lower lows the RSI made higher lows, indicating higher relative strength and resulting in higher high in Nifty.
2. In the 2nd instance when nifty managed to make the 2nd top at 5700 odd level, the RSI made a lower top indicating relative weakness and nifty fell on to make newer 52 week low.
3. In the 3rd instance marked as 3A&3B show  that nifty almost reached its 52 week low (4720 {3A}-4727{3B}) the 9RSI has managed lower lows and turned up on Friday, can this setup manage to give strength to the Bulls this time around ????? the price action would have to confirm this by moving above the channel.

NIFTY 20,50 100 SMA:
Nifty closed above 20 and then moved on to close above 50 SMA , may now target 100 SMA @ 5278 odd level 

BUZZING NIFTY : NIFTY ABOVE 50SMA

 NIFTY BUMP AND RUN REVERSAL:

Nifty broke the down trend and the chart pattern suggest a reversal in Nifty, price staying above the trend line favors bulls

BUZZING NIFTY:BUMP AND RUN REVERSAL

THE WEEK AHEAD: Global market turned from the bottom and gaining good ground, the Indian markets too rallied and if Nifty manages to stay above the  current levels, can target the gap area soon, any correction up-to 5020(support area of 50 SMA and 38dEMA) level should be used to create fresh long positions in the index, below 4997 nifty will resume the downtrend and this up-move would then be termed as  false breakout from the range
Expected High /Low for the week5226- 5007, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week.

With expiry nearing the corner, markets tend to give more pains to the trades which are already in pain, the current setup looks like the pain is only going to increase for the short trades.

Option open interest shows a range of 4900-5200 for the current expiry

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY ANALYSIS BEFORE OPENING BELL-Fibonacci Extention

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT

Today Nifty got resisted at 123.6% of the last fall from 5036-4727
Nifty Closed above 50SMA,  might target 100SMA @ 5278 Level
Immediate support for this up-move is at 5036, which was the previous swing high as well as 50 SMA
Fibo Extension Targets above 5110 are 5155,5192and 5228 on the way to 100 SMA.

NIFTY WEEKEND ANALYSIS for the week ended 08TH OCT 2011

Nifty yet again started the week on a negative note and reached the lows of 4720, but managed to protect the lows and the pressure continued, with holiday on Thursday and global negative clues saw nifty closing near its 52 weeks low, good rally in global markets on Thursday lead to a sharp gap-up opening on  Friday (with limited price action during the day, nifty  close at 4888 , 14 points gain over previous week, making a long legged doji or a pinhead in the process. Moody,s downgrading of top banks added to the pressure and bankex showed bigger losses as compared to Nifty

Let us see the alignment of some of the key technical Indicators

 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo: 
Gave a sell signal at the start of the week, this is a strong signal as the price action is well below the cloud, Friday close above the Conversion line gave some hopes for the bulls.
Any upmove from here would face resistance at the cloud( Komu) at 5036-67 levels

BUZZING NIFTY: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO SELL

Bollinger Band: Nifty started to rise from the lower BB and would gain momentum only on a close above the mid BB currently at 4972 odd level

BUZZING NIFTY: BOLLINGER BAND

 

NIFTY MOVING IN A CHANNEL

From the up move to the high of 6339 to a low of 4720 nifty is moving in a channel, giving good trades, nifty after touching the lower end of the channel at 4720 level is now moving north and would be targeting 5550 odd levels.

   

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY CHANNEL

  

NIFTY BEARISH FLAG:

Nifty has formed a bearish flag, the price action has also formed a channel a break from the range will give a clear larger direction to nifty, however a break down of the channel is the preferred view, the bearish flag pattern will then have a target of the length of the pole, a good 1000 point fall on the Nifty.

BUZZING NIFTY: BEARISH FLAG

38 DAY EMA :  This moving average has been successively giving good trades throughout the year 2011,only a comfortable move past 5020 level would add strength to the BULLS

BUZZING NIFTY: 38DEMA

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS

Fibonacci retracement levels from a fall from 5740-4720 level, indicated immediate resistance at 4952 and 5110 level and the next hurdle would be to cross the 50% level at 5230 and above that is the unfilled gap Zone.

BUZZING NIFTY: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT

SHORT TERM FIBO PROJECTION:

Nifty got resisted at 61.8% of the fall from 5035-4727 level, a move past 5035 would change the short term trend in favor of the bulls, however fail to stay above 4917 level would encourage the bears to pull Nifty down again to the lows of 4720 level

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY SHORT TERM FIBONACCI EXTENSION

NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE:

Nifty is moving in a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish reversal pattern if formed at the bottom of the price action, watch for the breakout above 4917  for early indications of the change in trend in favor of the bulls, a fail to cross 4917 level would lead nifty to the bottom of the wedge making newer lows before the bullish breakout.

BUZZING NIFTY: NIFTY BULLISH FALLING WEDGE

NIFTY- 9RSI SIGNALS

BUZZING NIFTY: 9RSI--NIFTY PRICE BEHAVIOR

 9RSI- a tool to analyze oversold/overbought conditions besides showing relative strength, has been giving good trade setups and early indications of larger moves in the making, the chart shows  some instances where NIFTY--9RSI have given good setups marked as 1(1A-1B) 2(2A-2B) AND 3MARKED AS 3A&3B

1. In the 1st instance when nifty made lower lows the RSI made higher lows, indicating higher relative strength and resulting in higher high in Nifty.
2. In the 2nd instance when nifty managed to make the 2nd top at 5700 odd level, the RSI made a lower top indicating relative weakness and nifty fell on to make newer 52 week low.
3. In the 3rd instance marked as 3A&3B show  that nifty almost reached its 52 week low (4720 {3A}-4727{3B}) the 9RSI has managed lower lows and turned up on Friday, can this setup manage to give strength to the Bulls this time around ????? the price action would have to confirm this by moving above the channel.

 THE WEEK AHEAD: Global market turned from the bottom and gaining good ground, the Indian markets missed out for a day due to Holiday and would sooner or later cover up the lost opportunity, Moody's downgrading of global Financial Institutions has shown the pressure  but the other sectors have managed to keep the index up and the Financial sectors are to be watched for further Strength/ weakness

Expected High /Low for the week 5002-4808, positions taken near these levels would give good trades for the week

HAPPY TRADING!!!!!!!!!